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Risk Intelligence insights
Risk Intelligence’s highly experienced security risk analysts are frequently featured in the media as journalists report on the maritime and land-based security threats to supply chain and logistics operations across the world. Here, we feature the articles published in news and industry media world wide, and add shorter analyst briefings on global hotspots for piracy attacks, crime and theft, insurgency, war risk and other security risks on land, at sea and in ports.
With South Korea scaling back its anti-North Korea focus and North Korea conducting two missile tests since the start of the year, these developments highlight the ongoing tensions and political shifts in the region.
Recent developments on the Korean Peninsula have drawn significant international attention. In December 2024, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law in South Korea citing "anti-state activities" and "threats posed by North Korea" as the primary reasons.
The upsurge of incidents recorded on the LandRisk System across Europe in 2024 raises many questions on the evolution of threats and threat actors directly targeting or likely to indirectly cause disruptions to supply chain operations in the upcoming year.
This briefing concisely reflects on the rise of criminal activities, the social unrest, and the geopolitical tensions which impacted European supply chain operations throughout 2024.
The infrastructure project is expected to continue leading to excessive claims of a looming threat, while inserting itself into the agenda of incoming US president Donald Trump. What is mostly certain is that the area is not going to be torn apart by organised crime in the short term and there is plenty of time to design proper guardrails.
Expected to handle five million TEUs annually, the fully automated mega-port of Chancay in Peru is set to become Latin America’s most important and efficient seaport.
In a regional context that has already been particularly tense since 7 October 2023, the lightning fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime adds to the uncertainty. While the maritime and port repercussions remain uncertain at this stage, the fall of the regime will most likely have naval implications and affect the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean.
Against a backdrop of profound geopolitical upheaval since the attacks of 7 October 2023, the fall of the Syrian regime is helping to redraw the map of the Middle East.
At the start of 2024 it was often mused that it would be a year of waiting, due to a multitude of factors. Waiting for the outcome of the many elections around the world that might determine any degree of future support for Ukraine.
Waiting to see the capacities of both the Ukrainian and the Russian forces, and their ability to continue their respective military operations – with forces that were not expected to see much replenishment, in personnel and equipment, until 2025.
While AI models like ChatGPT demonstrate impressive capabilities in natural language processing and generating human-like text, their application in intelligence analysis is fundamentally limited.
This briefing explains why ChatGPT and similar large language models (LLMs) are unsuitable for intelligence analysis, emphasising the differences between human analytical processes, as conducted by Risk Intelligence, and LLM capabilities.
Renewed protests over shipping to Israel led to multiple vessels being denied port access globally. The KATHRIN’s journey in the past months highlights how activism can impact operations, with broader geopolitical factors suggesting this trend will continue.
Activists online alleged the cargo vessel was carrying explosives bound for Israel and tracked the ship using open-source data. At the end of its voyage, it likely stopped in Egypt, then continued to Türkiye, where activists boarded the ship in protest.
Iran is forced to reckon with the demise of its main proxy and deterrent, the Lebanese Hezbollah. Much attention is now being paid to its nuclear programme, with many increasingly convinced that only a nuclear shield can protect the country from foreign attacks.
Iran is in a precarious position. Its most powerful proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah has been maimed by Israeli campaigns and has failed to deter Israeli military operations in Lebanon and against Iran itself.
Since Somali piracy declined in 2012, foreign fishing vessels have exploited the lack of governance in Somalia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), engaging in illegal, unregulated, and unreported (IUU) fishing. According to AIS data from GlobalFishingWatch, this has surged since 2017. Fishing hours in 2023 doubled those of 2022 and reached 15 times the 2017 level.
Local reports indicate that foreign vessels have adopted increasingly aggressive tactics, including ramming Somali boats, cutting nets, and even firing warning shots. Iranian-flagged vessels are most common, registering nearly 300 entries into Somalia’s EEZ in 2023.
Recent high-impact incidents in Germany, France and Italy underscore the severe risks posed by organised criminals to supply chain and commercial facilities. Utilising intelligence from LandRisk Logistics and adhering to TAPA standards can fortify your organisation's security and resilience against criminal activities.
We recorded three very different, high impact incidents on LandRisk Logistics that took place between the 14-17 June 2024 which highlight the dangers that capable, motivated and well resourced criminals pose to the supply chain and commercial facilities.
Last week, the spotlight was on Northern Europe's cross-border infrastructure in a shifting geopolitical landscape during the STRING and Region Skåne event at Connecting Europe Days in Brussels. With a focus on the Helsingør-Helsingborg fixed link and the Oslo-Göteborg railway stretch, the importance of these connections was underscored.
Hans Tino Hansen, CEO of Risk Intelligence, along with other specialists, added invaluable insights during the panel discussion, emphasising the intersection of civilian and military infrastructure needs.
Whilst the question of irregular migration, which continues to lie at the heart of European politics, overwhelmingly concentrates on maritime crossings of the Mediterranean Sea and the English Channel, recent data highlights a slow yet significant resurgence of enterprises placing road freight transport at the centre of their strategies.
This article delves into recent numbers, trends, and incidents to explain why irregular migration and smuggling remain a security threat to logistics operations.
Cargo theft criminals have been keeping the LandRisk Team busy during Q4 this year. Of particular interest is the presence of organised criminal groups (OCGs) carrying out cargo thefts on main logistics routes in Germany. OCGs present a significant threat to logistics operators as when they do strike the impact is often much higher due to the increased level of confidence, capability and resources these groups typically employ.
The A-1 motorway between Bremen and Hamburg has been hit particularly hard. On the evening of the 5th November 67 trucks had their trailers slashed in incidents at the Otsetal South, Grundbergsee South and Hatzte service/rest areas.
As naval drones and drone swarms redefine maritime strategies, a deeper analysis reveals how they challenge traditional naval operations and pave the way for innovative tactics in an increasingly complex and contested seascape.
In the ever-evolving arena of naval warfare, a transformation of profound significance is underway. This is evident in the use of smaller unmanned surface vessels (USVs), which has risen from smaller scale use in Yemen in the mid-2010s, to a veritable Ukrainian USV naval programme operating at full scale in 2023.
As Russia attempts to find ways to alleviate the impact of Western sanctions, and finding alternative trading partners and trade routes, China has seized the opportunity and is increasingly asserting itself on the Northern Sea Route. While highlighting the inequalities of the Russian-Chinese relationship, this will also have an impact on the wider geopolitical balance of power.
As global warming makes the Arctic's Northern Sea Route (NSR) more accessible, a complex geopolitical scenario is unfolding, with China taking the lead. Despite Russia's historical dominance over the NSR, it is now being challenged by China's robust shipbuilding industry and its aggressive Arctic strategies.
As technology advances, so does the potential for its misuse. Large language machines (LLMs) and image generators have become extremely popular, seemingly overnight, with the launch of ChatGPT 3 in November 2022. Since then, companies and individuals have scrambled to figure out uses for them for a variety of purposes or sectors.
LLMs continue to be upgraded and refined by their creators, and Adobe recently released their “Generative Fill”- AL tool for Photoshop, highlighting how the tech companies are competing fiercely to have the best possible software. However, these tools also have the potential to be used for malicious purposes, particularly in relation to hybrid threats.
The recent Saudi-Iranian agreement to mend diplomatic relations will likely improve maritime security at a high level by reducing a source of regional tension. However, the transactional nature of the agreement – where everything in the future is negotiable – leaves much room for regional proxy forces to continue to act. As well, the other potential flashpoint, between Iran and Israel, remains unresolved.
The Saudi-Iranian deal announced by China carries significant implications, although at this stage these remain mostly symbolic, and might mean more for Chinese-US relations than for the two middle-eastern rivals.
While hybrid threats are as old as war itself, the emerging threat from Russian aggression and rise of China has once again made hybrid threats relevant to consider even for private companies.
Hybrid threats refer to a combination of conventional and non-conventional tactics that adversaries use to achieve their objectives. These threats can originate from a wide range of actors, including state-sponsored groups, criminal organizations, or even lone individuals.
In a recent interview with Energy Intelligence, Risk Intelligence CEO Hans Tino Hansen provided insights into the Houthis’ continued resilience.
Published on 1 November 2024, the article outlines the ongoing challenges posed by the Houthis, who have continued their attacks despite airstrikes by the US, UK, and Israel. Hans Tino Hansen, CEO of Risk Intelligence, emphasised that the Houthis’ resilience and operational capabilities allow them to continue their attacks unless their missile and targeting capabilities are entirely neutralised:
Risk Intelligence provided insights for an article in Seatrade Maritime News, discussing the evolving challenges in Asian maritime security during Q3 2024.
Published on 8 October 2024, the article highlights significant issues, including the resurgence of tug hijackings and AIS spoofing linked to the dark fleet. A key incident involved the hijacking of a tug and barge in the Java Sea, raising concerns about vulnerabilities in biofuel transportation.
Risk Intelligence Senior Analyst Louis Borer shared insights with the French magazine MOYEN-ORIENT on the resurgence of piracy in the Indian Ocean, highlighting the potential links to Houthi attacks and the focus of international naval attention in the Red Sea.
The article discusses the return of piracy in November 2023 in the Indian Ocean, coinciding with the deterioration in security due to Houthi attacks in the area.
In a recent interview with SCM News, Risk Intelligence CEO Hans Tino Hansen addressed the potential for stricter security requirements in the logistics industry, driven by increasing criminal exploitation and foreign interference in supply chains.
Published on 30 September 2024, the article highlights the pressing security challenges facing the logistics industry.
In a recent interview with Ingeniøren, Risk Intelligence CEO Hans Tino Hansen shared insights regarding vulnerabilities in supply chains, particularly in light of a large-scale attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The article, published on 19 September 2024, delves into a large-scale supply chain attack in Lebanon and highlights the broader vulnerabilities of the global supply chains.
In a recent interview with Bridget Diakun for Lloyd's List, Risk Intelligence analyst, Hans-Kristian Petersen shared his perspective on the recent attacks on vessels in the Black Sea.
Published on 23 September 2024, the Lloyd’s List article features insights from Petersen, who noted that the damage to the vessels Golden Lion and Aya was likely the result of collateral strikes on surrounding infrastructure, rather than deliberate targeting by Russia.
In a recent article by Energy Intelligence, Hans Tino Hansen, CEO of Risk Intelligence, shared his perspective on the escalating tensions in the Middle East and their potential implications on regional infrastructure.
Published on 2 August 2024, the article delves into the mounting concerns of a broader conflict following recent strikes by Israel on Hezbollah targets and the assassination of Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The recent article on Diploweb by Risk Intelligence analysts Kais Makhlouf and Louis Borer delves into the maritime aspects of the Gaza conflict, highlighting its impact on the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.
The original release date of the article was on 26 May 2024, as published by Diploweb.
Risk Intelligence recent report regarding recent Houthi threats to maritime security was highlighted by SAFETY4SEA
The article was published by SAFETY4SEA 20 May 2024 and it focused on recent maritime threats including Houthi announcements related to the Eastern Mediterranean on 3 May, which raised concerns due to the ongoing attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.