Hybrid threats to logistics and the wider supply chain

Image featuring migrants at the Belarusian-Polish border in the Grodno region in November 8, 2021. Credit: Simon Serdar / Alamy Stock Photo

3 April 2023

While hybrid threats are as old as war itself, the emerging threat from Russian aggression and rise of China has once again made hybrid threats relevant to consider even for private companies.

By Kristian Bischoff, Europe and Russia analyst

Hybrid threats refer to a combination of conventional and non-conventional tactics that adversaries use to achieve their objectives. These threats can originate from a wide range of actors, including state-sponsored groups, criminal organizations, or even lone individuals. The logistics industry and supply chain are not immune to hybrid threats, and they can have a significant impact on their operations.

In this article, we will explore two central ways in which hybrid threats can affect logistics companies and the supply chain.

Cyber attacks

Cyber attacks on logistics companies and the supply chain can take various forms, including phishing, malware attacks, and ransomware. These attacks can result in the temporary loss of critical data, leading to delays and disruptions in the supply chain. Additionally, cyber attacks can compromise the integrity and security of logistics systems, making them vulnerable to further attacks.

One of the significant challenges posed by cyber attacks is that they can be difficult to detect and prevent. Cybercriminals use sophisticated tactics and tools to breach logistics companies' systems, and it may take weeks or even months before the attack is discovered. This delay can exacerbate the impact of the attack, making it more challenging to mitigate its effects.

To address the threat of cyber attacks, logistics companies need to implement robust cybersecurity measures. This includes investing in secure IT infrastructure, regularly updating software and hardware, and conducting regular security audits to identify vulnerabilities in the system. Additionally, logistics companies need to provide training to their staff on how to identify and report potential cyber threats. By adopting a proactive approach to cybersecurity, logistics companies can reduce the risk of cyber attacks and mitigate their impact on the supply chain.

Political Instability

Political instability can create significant challenges for logistics companies and the supply chain. This is because political instability can lead to protests, strikes, and civil unrest, making it difficult for logistics companies to move goods across borders. An example of this is the Belarusian/Polish border crisis in 2021-22, where the Belarusian regime funnelled large numbers of migrants toward the Polish border, in an attempt to destabilise Polish society and political landscape. This lead to Polish security forces closing a major border crossing, with 25 km of queues and major delays to follow.

Additionally, governments may impose economic sanctions on specific countries, limiting logistics companies' ability to do business with those entities. For instance, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has led to the closure of several key ports, making it difficult for logistics companies to move goods in and out of the country. Similarly, economic sanctions imposed by the West on Russia have restricted logistics companies' ability to do business with Russian entities. Further, Western sanctions on China may lead to more complications in the future.

To mitigate the impact of political instability, logistics companies need to adopt a flexible and adaptive approach to their operations. This includes developing contingency plans to deal with potential disruptions, diversifying their supply chain to reduce their reliance on specific regions or countries, and building strong relationships with local partners who can provide valuable support during times of crisis.

Additionally, logistics companies need to stay up to date with the political situation in countries where they operate, for example by using threat intelligence, and adjust their operations accordingly. By taking a proactive approach to political instability, logistics companies can reduce the impact of disruptions on the supply chain and maintain the integrity of their operations.

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