The fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime: what are the maritime and naval implications?

Russian naval vessel Sergey Shoigu operating near the Syrian coastline. Image credit: Mil.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

13 December 2024

In a regional context that has already been particularly tense since 7 October 2023, the lightning fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime adds to the uncertainty. While the maritime and port repercussions remain uncertain at this stage, the fall of the regime will most likely have naval implications and affect the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean.

By Louis Borer, Senior Analyst

Against a backdrop of profound geopolitical upheaval since the attacks of 7 October 2023, the fall of the Syrian regime is helping to redraw the map of the Middle East. While the fall of the regime was still possible given its structural weakening, the speed with which the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTC), led by Mohammed al-Jolani, took all the players and observers by surprise. Indeed, less than two weeks after the start of the offensive, the regime fell on 8 December, precipitated by the abandonment of its Russian allies, preoccupied on the Ukrainian front, Iran and in particular Hezbollah, significantly weakened by Israel.

The situation in the area is evolving very rapidly, and the maritime and port repercussions are still difficult to assess. To date, the implications are mainly naval, particularly concerning the Russian naval presence at Tartus. As the main Russian base outside its own territory, Tartus is the only refueling and repair facility in a warm port that is exclusively available to the Russian navy, playing a direct part in the projection of Russian force and influence in Africa and the Middle East. However, satellite images dated 3 December confirmed that a significant part of the fleet had left Tartus, although reports on 6 December suggested that no large-scale evacuation was underway. The departure of the main Russian naval units may be a military manoeuvre to move the most important ships away from possible conflict area, pending developments on the ground. On 8 December, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that it was in contact with ‘all Syrian opposition groups’, ruling out the scenario of an attack against them.

At the port of Latakia, although the town has fallen into rebel hands, operations appear to have been relatively calm. However, most of the ships arriving at the port are on AIS off, and this trend has increased since the beginning of December. On night of 9 December, Israeli air strikes targeted Latakia. Arms depots were targeted, as well as naval vessels belonging to the Syrian forces, and destroying a crane in the southern part of the port. The aim of this operation was to prevent these weapons falling into rebel hands.

On the maritime front, other types of disruption are expected, particularly concerning maritime traffic with Iran. On 8 December, the oil tanker LOTUS, which was due to deliver 750,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil to Syria, turned back just before the Suez Canal. According to data provided by Kepler, Iran was delivering one to four tanker cargoes a month to the Syrian port of Baniyas, without which there could be a risk of fuel shortages in the country.

The situation in the country remains confused, particularly in the Alawite coastal area of Syria, which has traditionally been pro-regime. While there have been no significant acts of violence or revenge so far, HTC’s strategy remains highly uncertain. Al-Jolani, who goes by his real name Ahmed Al-Charaa, is trying to present a reassuring profile, despite his jihadist past with ISIS and al-Qaeda. However, al-Jolani has broken with global jihadism in favor of an exclusively Syrian conservative agenda, demonstrating great tactical and political skill. However, whatever the immediate future of Syria, a return to stability seems unlikely in the short to medium term, and the posture of the new US administration will be decisive for the region.

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