Israel's breach of the ceasefire: what are the maritime and port consequences?

A photo from a civilian rooftop, showing Israeli air strikes during the Gaza War. Image credit: Jaber Jehad Badwan, via Wikimedia Commons

07 April 2025

The resumption of Israeli air strikes on 18 March marked the end of the fragile ceasefire of January 2025. To date, the main threat to Israel has been from ballistic missiles, which the Houthis have launched on several occasions, albeit more symbolically than operationally. Although several rockets have been launched from Gaza and Lebanon, none of the three Israeli ports on the Mediterranean coast has been targeted, either by Hamas or by Hezbollah. Although it is still too early to draw any conclusions, the geopolitics of the Middle East and the Red Sea still seem to be linked to the fate of Gaza.

By Louis Borer, Senior Analyst

Whether the result of Israeli political and military will or a deadlock in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, Israel launched massive air strikes on Gaza on 18 March, marking the end of the ceasefire signed on 15 January 2025. Probably encouraged by the “green light” given by the Trump administration, these operations are intended to create zones of control in Gaza - possibly permanent - particularly in the south of the enclave, along the Philadelphia corridor, considered by Israel to be a porous border through which Hamas obtains supplies of weapons. In this context, on 2 April, Israel’s defence minister said that Israel “will seize extensive territory that will be added to the state of Israel’s security areas.”

To date, the main threat to Israel has been from ballistic missiles, several of which have been launched from Yemen by the Houthis. However, the intention of these launches seems to be more symbolic than operational, launched as a protest against the resumption of Israeli operations for communication and propaganda purposes. The missiles were all intercepted by the IDF, most of them before entering Israeli territory.

From the southern flank, at the end of March, several rockets were launched from Gaza, in particular in the direction of Tel Aviv and a number of neighbouring towns such as Holon and Yavne Telem. The warning and detection systems reported rocket launches near the ports of Ashkelon and Ashdod, but there was no evidence that these two ports could have been potential targets, a threat that would have remained very residual given the lack of precision of the rockets and the Israeli interception systems.

On 28 March, the Israeli air force bombed a building in the southern suburbs of Beirut for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, in response to the unclaimed firing of two rockets over the Galilee. Followed by other Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa plain, these operations revived fears that Hezbollah would retaliate against northern Israel and Haifa, which had been regularly targeted before the ceasefire. However, given Hezbollah's attrition and missile capabilities, a major response does not seem credible.

While it is still too early to draw any conclusions on the situation, the stability of the Middle East, the eastern Mediterranean and, by extension, the Red Sea still seem to be linked to the fate of Gaza. On this central point, the number of uncertainties remains high. Netanyahu, who is gambling with the future of his coalition and his political and judicial survival, seems to favour military rather than diplomatic options, with the support of the Trump administration legitimszing the positions of the Israeli hard right. Israel’s latest moves show its military strength but on the political front the conflict is far from over.

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