Migrant smuggling and road freight transport: Current trends and patterns

A pullover lost by an immigrant who tried to illegally get through a barbed wire, Calais, France. Image: iStock

15 March 2024

Whilst the question of irregular migration, which continues to lie at the heart of European politics, overwhelmingly concentrates on maritime crossings of the Mediterranean Sea and the English Channel, recent data highlights a slow yet significant resurgence of enterprises placing road freight transport at the centre of their strategies. This article delves into recent numbers, trends, and incidents to explain why irregular migration and smuggling remain a security threat to logistics operations.

By Jeanne Albin, LandRisk Security Specialist

The number of migrant-related incidents recorded throughout Europe on the LandRisk Logistics System more than doubled in the first months of 2024 compared to the same months last year. This follows a period marked by a particularly significant increase in secondary movements and irregular entry attempts in several European regions, including Poland, the Czech Republic, the eastern regions of Germany and the Italy-French border. This data thus poses the question of whether stowaways still represent a threat to the legitimate road transport sector in the European context.

Fortunately, the number of incidents remains low—56 were recorded in 2023, for example, compared with the 2289 cargo thefts and 143 robberies recorded over the same period. Even in the most important European hotspot, the area of the English Channel crossing, the professionalisation and industrialisation of smuggling networks, the implementation of more stringent security measures during the peak of the so-called ‘refugee crisis’ over the 2015-2018 period, and, more recently, events such as Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, have led to the rising use of small boats over the previously observed reliance on truck and trains. And whilst it is clear that the majority of criminal enterprises have now shifted towards maritime crossings, the idea that this method has entirely replaced the use of trucks needs to be nuanced. Indeed, it is first important to note that the use of small boats is the most noticeable method of entry, and thus the most likely to be recorded. On the contrary, it is virtually impossible to precisely estimate the scope of other methods, including the use of commercial vehicles, as data does not account for attempts made by migrants who avoided detection.

Nonetheless, recent incidents indicate that this threat remains relevant to the road transport industry. For example, in a case recorded on the LandRisk Logistics System in early January 2024, 14 migrants were found hiding onboard a refrigerated trailer onboard a ferry travelling between France and Ireland. Even more recently, on 16 February 2024, the French police dismantled a smuggling network based in the Pas-de-Calais and Ile-de-France areas which smuggled migrants in trucks bound for the United Kingdom as they were parked in rest areas along the French motorway system at night. Police believe the network was involved in the smuggling of at least 100 people in 15 different incidents between October 2023 and February 2024.

In fact, data indicate that 2023 saw a c. 5% year-on-year increase in recorded detections at UK ports—i.e., migrants detected in lorries and shipping containers at ports. Whilst minimal, this marked the first year an increase in this method of entry was recorded since 2018. Perhaps more interesting, the number of attempts almost doubled (90.3%) during the second half of 2023 compared to the first half of the year. Poor weather conditions during the winter months and a crackdown from both French and British authorities, alongside a possible increase in crossing attempts from migrants from poorer communities (that is, more inclined to undertake individual attempts, rather than buying the service of smugglers) are likely to explain these observations.

Trends related to stowaway incidents are notoriously complicated to predict, shaped as much by wide geopolitical considerations as by the incredible capacities of smuggling networks to adapt to changes in law enforcement activities and migration patterns. Nonetheless, the currently available data, alongside the fact that 2024 is expected to see yet another surge in migration attempts in Europe, indicate that the threat posed by irregular migration and smuggling enterprises to the road logistics sector remains present and may be rising after years marked by low numbers of incidents. It is thus imperative that legitimate actors continue raising awareness and adopting appropriate preventive measures.

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