Monthly Intelligence Report January 2024

This month’s issue of the Monthly Intelligence Report covers incidents that took place between December 1 - 31, 2023, in three focus regions:

• West Africa

• Western Indian Ocean (including the Persian Gulf)

• South East Asia

Focus topic: Iran’s foreign policy – and why it matters

This month, we are taking a look at Iran’s extensive use of proxy groups across the Middle East. For Iran’s government, these groups provide a cheap source of influence to balance otherwise somewhat limited capabilities. In the maritime context, Hezbollah in Lebanon and – as demonstrated in recent weeks – the Yemen-based Houthis are by far the most important proxies. An analysis of threats and risks for maritime operations therefore has to take their capabilities as well as the broader political context into account.

In addition, the report provides a brief update on the maritime implications of the war in Ukraine.

This month's risk and threat assessment

In the report's assessment, the main incidents are put into a broader context to highlight current threat levels and potential changes for maritime operations. Moreover, the report includes forecasts that cover the main concerns in the coming weeks.