Recent bombing and arson attacks highlight threats against vaccine supply chains and infrastructure
Video: Short news clip from Reuters on the incident in the Netherlands.
22 March 2021
Recent attacks in March against test centres in the Netherlands and Denmark highlight the extremist element to the anti-lockdown groups. Security professionals should consider a possible new threat to the Covid-19 vaccine supply chain and keep an eye out for related developments.
By Kristian Bischoff, Europe analyst
Covid-19 restrictions have caused major tensions in many countries due to the limits to public and social life, the economic issues for several types of businesses affected by lockdowns, as well as discussions over infection tracking and the use of vaccines. These grievances have been voiced during protests in many countries, with violent clashes between protesters and police being the result in several cases and widespread rioting and looting in a few instances.
The attacks carried out in March against test centres, using a crude explosive device in the Netherlands and a Molotov cocktail in Copenhagen respectively, highlight the extremist element to the anti-lockdown groups, and it is unclear whether an escalation can be expected or in which direction potential development might go.
The longevity of the Covid-19 lockdowns has resulted in the mobilisation of anti-lockdown political grassroots organisations that organise events and direct conversation and communication on social media. This, along with the polarising nature of the issue, the conspiracy element that often presents in anti-lockdown/vaccine-sceptic groups, as well as the inherent distrust that many of these people feel toward governments and authorities, amounts to a radicalisation process that has been ongoing since the earliest lockdowns began in Europe in March a year ago.
The language used in many of these online groups, about the perceived urgency in fighting what these persons consider illegal and authoritarian government measures, is worrying in the sense that it may lead to extremism and violent action. This is likely what has happened in the cases of the attacks on the test centres in the Netherlands and Denmark. Another thing to note here is that the anti-lockdown rhetoric is mirrored in many populist right-wing parties and groups, resulting in some overlap between anti-lockdown segments and the radical right-wing. This, as evidenced by multiple terrorist attacks in recent years, have the potential for developing into extremist violence.
Until now, discussions on the security of vaccine transports have mainly been oriented around theft and robbery of vaccines for economic gain. With the attacks in March, however - even though these were on test centres - the extremist anti-lockdown elements showed that they likely want to strike either symbolic targets related to the effort against Covid-19, or that they directly want to disrupt the effort itself. Therefore, a new threat against the vaccine supply chain should be considered, such as attacks on production and warehouse facilities, and against transports, with the intent to disrupt operations or destroy doses.
Capabilities in attacks may range from improvised incendiaries and explosives as seen in March, but the use of firearms cannot be entirely ruled out. Advanced tactics as seen in general attacks by individuals with terrorism tradecraft is unlikely. It is so far uncertain if there is a direct threat against employees, as most anger from the anti-lockdown groups is directed against politicians and experts, but supply chain employees being harmed as collateral damage is not difficult to imagine. Security professionals are advised to keep an eye out for developments related to this.
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