Libya: Rival prime ministers and the country's political process
8 March 2022
Libya now has two rival Prime Ministers, and neither seems intent on backing down in the coming show of force. What does this mean for Libya’s political process, and what impact does this have on the country’s all-important oil & gas sector?
By Kais Makhlouf, MENA Analyst
With a contested vote, Libya’s House of Representatives in Tobruq has recently nominated former Fathi Bashagha Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity. Having previously served as GNA Interior Minister and hailing from Misrata, like current PM Abdelhamid Dbeiba, Bashagha enjoys significant support among armed groups and political factions in western Libya, including among the influential Misratan militias.
The GNU now has two Prime Ministers, and it is yet unclear who will take over, although Bashagha currently seems to have wind in his sails. Incumbent PM Dbeiba has so far shown no intention of ceding power, claiming that he would only step down for an elected Premier. His government was mandated to organise elections in December 2021, but these were cancelled amidst disputes on the constitutional basis for the elections. Beyond talks and proposals, there have been no tangible indications of a new election being held in the future. PM Dbeiba has mobilised his militia backers in Tripoli, organising shows of force, and is currying favour among various constituencies to ensure their loyalty at a time where many have a choice to make.
PM Bashagha’s main task will be to convince westerners that his Premiership is viable. While he does have political backing, he is not the incumbent. He must sway militia backers and leading political figures to his side. Ultimately, ideology is likely to play a limited role, as many will probably side with whomever offers a better deal. Bashagha has so far sought to distinguish himself from Dbeiba by maintaining good relations with the east.
The reaction to Bashagha’s nomination has been mixed. Many in the west suspect that Bashagha has a “secret” deal with Haftar, which would see him take over Tripoli without a fight, under the pretence of reunifying the country. Haftar has himself remained silent through much of the upheaval, likely waiting for the story to unfold. The UN has indicated it supported PM Dbeiba’s tenure until elections were organised. However, Turkey and Russia, who now have more pressing concerns than Libyan adventures, have indicated an increased willingness to eke out a political resolution. Turkey, while opposed to Bashagha’s nomination, has sent representatives to Benghazi in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Russian declarations have been equivocal on the topic of Bashagha’s government, leaving an opening for negotiations. Other players such as Italy and France, are likely hoping for an outcome which will allow them to return to Libyan politics.
This has nonetheless led to an increase in tensions. Militias in Tripoli have geared up for fighting. There has also been an increase in activism which has led to repeated shutdowns of oil infrastructure in the first 3 months of 2022, and the trend is set to continue until after this dispute is resolved. The anticipation of trouble may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, although there is no guarantee that militias on either side will be willing to fight, when ultimately, neither Bashagha nor Dbeiba seem to threaten their interests.
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