Ports et corridors: ‘Ukraine: political tensions and effects on port traffic‘
Ukraine crisis and possible impact on maritime operations. Visavis
‘Ports et corridors’ published an article based on Risk Intelligence’s briefing paper on the Ukraine crisis and possible impact on maritime operations seen through the prism of five possible scenarios - and specifically to Ukrainian port operations. The French publication also provided an overview of potential impacts on Ukraine’s cereal exports.
23 February 2022
While looking at the five potential scenarios highlighted by Risk Intelligence that might be considered by Russia, Chief editor of Ports et corridors, Hervé Deiss, emphasized Risk Intelligence’s analysis of the collateral damages faced by port facilities in Ukraine, where both the maritime navigation and land infrastructure can be impacted and even attacked.
In the article, Deiss highlights how Russian naval manoeuvres have already compromised access to Ukrainian Black Sea ports, and reports how Ukraine’s Ministry of Infrastructure has advised the maritime sector to seek alternative routes to bypass the Russian blockade. A proposal proven to be successful and therefore confirming that the maritime trade is not yet impacted by the current crisis. Even so, an increase in freight rates for ships in the Black Sea has been noted.
However, the article also concludes that there should be no impact on grain exports from Black Sea markets, and that the potential of exports for both Russia and Ukraine are estimated to remain high for the rest of the season. Ports et corridors further reports that cereal prices have not increased radically, despite slight fluctuations in the last weeks, but notes the possibility of future Western sanctions on the grain trades from Russia and Ukraine, which could impact markets.
Read the full article in French here.