Transnistria: Will tensions rise as Moldova becomes pro-Europe?
14 September 2021
The outcome of recent elections in Moldova has shifted the political focus from pro-Russia to being pro-Europe. A renewed focus on Transnistria and its pro-Russian administration, is therefore not unlikely and could also include a rise in tensions if Russian spheres of influence are seen to be under threat. What is the outlook - and the implications for logistics operations?
By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea Analyst
The break-away area of Transnistria is located between Moldova to the west and Ukraine to the east and is recognised only by Abkhazia, Artsakh and South Ossetia. It rarely receives much attention, although with the various actors and areas of interest and tensions which ebb and flow in the region it would make sense to pay more attention to Transnistria. This is particularly the case when considering the wider region, such as the Crimean Peninsula, the ongoing conflict in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, The Sea of Azov and general tensions regarding the Black Sea and the more recent flareup of the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh territories in the Caucasus.
Officially known as the Pridnestrovian Moldovian Republic, the area sought independence in 1990 following the breakup of the Soviet Union, with the thought of remaining within a future Soviet Union. Though this never materialised, close ties with modern Russia have been maintained and Russian peacekeeping forces have long had a presence in the area. It has de facto independence of sorts as part of Moldova, but various issues remain contentious – such as the Russian forces. Various talks have previously attempted to seek an end to the presence of the forces and the newly elected pro-European president of Moldova, Maia Sandu, has also expressed a desire to see the withdrawal of the Russian troops and military equipment.
Fraud and corruption are significant issues in Transnistria throughout society. Although nothing new, the issue has also been highlighted during the recent parliamentary elections held in Moldova where bribes for votes has been noted as a significant issue. Most of the political apparatus is built on practices of nepotism and favouritism. Furthermore, Moldova, which also has significant issues with corruption, influences general business practices in Transnistria and likely to also impact the logistics sector and related operations.
Although most smuggling activity is considered to involve common commercial goods in order to avoid paying taxes and customs, smuggling of commodities is also considered as part of wider organised crime activities, utilising their own smuggling networks. However, several incidents of smuggling are also known to take place in connection with normal logistics operations and therefore such incidents and implications cannot be ruled out.
The current situation is largely considered a very frozen conflict. Actual militarisation in or of the Transnistria break-away region is, as it stands, unlikely. However, it is worth assessing the shared characteristics with Russian involvement in the other, previously mentioned areas, where various forms of militarisation have occurred, with some escalation resulting in kinetic conflict.
The outcome of recent elections in Moldova has shifted the political focus from pro-Russia to being pro-Europe. A renewed focus on Transnistria, and its pro-Russian administration, is therefore not unlikely and could also include a rise in tensions if Russian spheres of influence are seen to be under threat.
Although any future escalation cannot be ruled out, any escalation is more likely to be part of an additional increase in military activity in the wider region – to strengthen such spheres of influence.
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