Where to Georgia, East or West?
The Old Georgian Parliament building on Rustaveli Avenue in Tbilisi, Georgia. Image: Alamy
29 July 2024
Upcoming October elections in Georgia, are likely to determine the country’s future direction, looking either East or West.
By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea analyst
The Black Sea region has been mired by the impact of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine since February 2022 – although regional security related concerns and issues also existed prior to the invasion. For Georgia, the Ukraine/Russia war has had a mixed impact. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a reported more than 100.000 Russian citizens fled Russia to Georgia, during the first 9 months of the full-scale war, to avoid being drafted to the Russian army. More followed, and whilst understood to have returned. Civil-society is active in Georgia and politically charged demonstrations and protests were particularly intense in the capital Tbilisi, most recently in April and May 2024, following the governments adoption of what has been dubbed the “foreign-agents” law, which in effect would impact internationally funded civil society organisations, and which the protesters claimed to be inspired by Russian legislation.
The current Georgian Dream Party government is accused of frustrating the priorities of the populous – an April 2022 poll showed nearly 75% wanted the country to join the European Union and 60% wanting to join NATO - the current government has been in power for the past 12 years. Tensions in Georgia are nothing new as the country continues to deal with the aftermath of the civil war in the early 1990s, when ethnic minorities in regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, demanded greater autonomy from then Georgian government. Both regions remain contested with unresolved issues of Russian involvement. The war in Ukraine has raised concerns for future tensions and remain likely as long as the ongoing and unresolved issues regarding the two regions are left unresolved.
In March 2022 Georgia submitted its application to join the European Union. The process, which was assessed as going to be arduous for Georgia, became even more so, when the government led by the ruling Georgian Dream Party adopted the “foreign-agents” law – which has reportedly resulted in any further accession processes to be halted by the EU – just months after being granted candidate status.
A significant concern for operating in the Black Sea is threat posed by mines – sea-mines or other similar objects which may or may not be mines but may still cause operational disruptions. However, only one incident in February 2023, has been widely reported regarding mines in Georgian waters.
Regarding maritime operations in the Black Sea, two recent positive developments are worth highlighting. These are the re-establishing of ferry connections between Bulgaria and Georgia and between Ukraine and Georgia. The ferry connection between Bulgaria and Georgia was halted two years ago, as was the ferries between Ukraine and Georgia. The re-established routes are likely to initially focus on the transport of truck and rail cargo to test if the routes prove viable. It is currently uncertain when regular service on these routes will be fully established.
With a fractured opposition the governing party stands a stronger chance in the upcoming October parliamentary elections. However, given the recent diverging developments in the country, submitting the EU membership application and then adopting a law which contradicts EU values, means that whatever the outcome, of the election, it will likely prove a turning point for country – whether it looks East or West.
The Risk Intelligence System now features the Port of Poti and a comprehensive country threat assessment for Georgia.
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