Ukraine and Black Sea update – Weathering storms
The image features vessels at sea in the midst of a stormy weather. Source: iStock images.
5 December 2023
Local weather conditions are likely to influence the events of the coming weeks, and months – though to varying degrees. This for both commercial maritime and military operations. This may, therefore, lead to additional perils to operating in the Black Sea, if intensity both in vessel traffic and military operations occur. However, the only truly predictable factor, is the unpredictability of the actors involved.
By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea analyst
With recent global attention shifting towards the situation in Israel and Gaza, this should not be at the expense of less focus on the continuing war in Ukraine, where Russian forces continue to target and attack Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Recent severe winter weather has also affected both maritime and military operations.
Following the Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in mid-July, the targeting of port cities and port related infrastructure has intensified – which has also resulted in direct damage to vessels. Ukraine has since been establishing a possible alternative route for the shipment of Ukrainian exports and working towards a formal structure. In a recent comment to Reuters, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that it would be difficult to revive the previous Black Sea Grain Initiative. Previous developments include announcements by first Russia then Ukraine announcing that vessels bound for each of their Black Sea ports, would be considered as possibly carrying military cargo and therefore as parties to each – rendering vessels as potentially legitimate military targets. Attacks against Ukrainian ports are known to have affected the power supply, which in turn has halted operations. Given the constant unpredictability, similar future attacks cannot be ruled out. The threat from military operations, particularly in the NW area, but also the wider Black Sea area, is still considered severe.
The two influential developments which are currently impacting the regional security picture. Firstly, recent severe winter weather. Although not unusual, it raises the additional concerns regarding disruption to the location of mines in the area – as drifting mines are already a known issue, any rough weather is likely to heighten this issue. Secondly, the coming winter months are likely to see a shift in military tactics, reflecting whatever the weather permits. This in relation to the Ukrainian ‘humanitarian corridor’ could mean a further increase in the targeting of Ukrainian ports and port related facilities by Russian forces.
Overall, the regional impact on commercial maritime trade remains varied depending on operational location. With the south and south-eastern trade assessed still less impacted, compared with the north-western and Sea of Azov areas. Threats from drifting sea-mines and possible collateral damage are still assessed as the most significant threats to trade in these areas – as incident during November have illustrated – which also further underline the unpredictable nature of the current situation.
Local weather conditions are likely to influence the events of the coming weeks, and months – though to varying degrees. This for both commercial maritime and military operations. This may, therefore, lead to additional perils to operating in the Black Sea, if intensity both in vessel traffic and military operations occur. However, the only truly predictable factor, is the unpredictability of the actors involved.
MARITIME SECURITY REPORTS:
There are several Risk Intelligence reports that can help you assess the risk of a specific route, or provide further background for decision-making in the form of a threat assessment
The Voyage Risk Assessment zooms in on a vessel and its voyage specifics, and offers an independent third party view on necessary security measures, wheras the Monthly Intelligence Report offers comprehensive analysis of recent incidents and a threat assessment for three main regions on a subscription basis.
For maritime shipping operators with vessels in the Black Sea, please see our weekly Northern Black Sea Intelligence Report here: