Turkey votes for its future

Display of the flag of Turkey and the speaker podium tribune for political events. Source: Maksim Yemelyanov / Alamy

15 May 2023

Turkey held general and presidential elections on May 14, 2023, with no decisive winner emerging on May 15, although indications suggested that the incumbent, Erdogan, would survive the vote, including winning a majority in the parliamentary election. The opposition coalition led by Kılıçdaroğlu presented a serious electoral alternative, campaigning to restore ties with Europe and NATO, and to restore Turkish democracy.

By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea analyst

General and presidential elections were held in Turkey on 14 May 2023. The last elections were in June 2018. A presidential candidate must achieve above 50% of the vote in order to be elected. No decisive winner emerged on Monday 15 May – although some indications were that the incumbent Erdoğan would survive the vote – including winning a majority in the parliamentary election.

For president Erdoğan, and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), this election was a high stakes contest – with political survival hinging on some of the narrowest poll margins.

Several factors had been seen to influence the election. These included the recent February earthquake, and how the AKP government had responded, the general state of the Turkish economy, with high inflation and unorthodox economic policies, regional and national security – a fond campaigning theme of Erdoğan’s – to name a few.

United opposition

The six-party opposition coalition, which the largely Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) had supported, though not joined, presented a serious electoral alternative. The coalition, led by Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), has been campaigning to restore ties with Europe and NATO, and to restore Turkish democracy. However, though a coalition may work during a campaign, it is harder to put into practice when governing and it did experience some difficulties during the campaign – this may have been seen as a weakness by voters.

Following the putsch in July 2016, the Erdoğan led government undertook several wide-reaching purges, affecting many sectors including the military, police, civil service and judiciary, academia and the media. A state of emergency remained in place until the 2018 general election.

Political control of Istanbul, Erdoğan was himself mayor of the city in the 1990s, is often cited as an indicator for national elections. In 2019 Ekrem İmamoğlu (CHP), who’s seen as a popular challenger to Erdoğan, won the mayoral election dealing a blow to Erdoğan and the AKP. However, in December 2022, İmamoğlu was convicted and sentenced for two years and seven months imprisonment, for criticising president Erdoğan and the AKP – a conviction largely seen as a political ban on the opposition and which led to large protest across Turkey.

The impact on regional security

The ongoing war in Ukraine, following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, continues to influence and impact the regional security environment. The outcome of the Turkish election will therefore be no less significant, and, for some voters, the choice may well be based on what is seen as security and continuity, rather than time for change and uncertainty, which, under other circumstances may have been the preferred option. If no presidential candidate receives more than the 50%, when counting completes, a second round will be held on 28 May and if the result is contested it could take some time for the dust to settle. Whoever wins will have to deal with the same issue that the country is facing and the election is therefore as much about the approach governing and the possible solutions as it is about the general direction of the country – with Erdoğan seen as the favourite amongst the conservative and rural voters.

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