The North Korean nuclear threat
Launch of HS-15 ICBM at Pyongyang International Airport on 18 Feb 2023 / Source: North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA)
11 September 2023
North Korea has recently demonstrated its “deadly nuclear counterattack capability” amid ongoing US-ROK joint military exercises meant to show the strength of US extended deterrence.
By Katie Zeng Xiaojun, Analyst
The rising nuclear tensions in the Korean peninsula represent an element of instability in the geo-maritime space of the East China Sea, affecting countries with special interests in the Northwest Asia-Pacific, such as China, Russia, the United States (US), Japan and South Korea.
In February 2023, North Korea showcased about a dozen advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles at a nighttime military parade, which marked the founding anniversary of the North Korean army. Last year saw North Korea test more missiles than at any time in its history, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could in theory strike the US mainland.
In March, North Korea conducted drills simulating a nuclear counterattack in response to joint amphibious landing exercises by the US and South Korea. This is another example of North Korea trying to demonstrate a strong and credible deterrent (a “deadly nuclear counterattack capability”), especially amid ongoing US-ROK joint military exercises meant to show the strength of US extended deterrence.
At the same time, North Korea also unveiled its first-ever nuclear-armed unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). In terms of time-to-target, accuracy and lethality, it is not on par with ballistic and cruise missiles. However, it reportedly could reach coastal targets in South Korea and southeast Japan. The weapon has a slow speed, thus it is assessed to not pose a viable threat to ships that are underway, but rather to ports and anchorages.
Since then, North Korea has launched its first solid-fuel ICBM, various strategic cruise missiles and short-range missiles. The latest launch of an ICBM in July signified that its Hwasong-18 was nearing operational deployment, which would significantly enhance the threat posed by North Korea to the US.
North Korean weapon tests are nothing new as the country has been conducting missile tests for years. So far, the regime said that most of its launches were a response to the aggressive and provocative attitude of the US and its allies. However, North Korea has been continuously strengthening the country’s war deterrence capabilities, which poses an ongoing threat to regional and global stability.
North Korea has long insisted that it will not give up its nuclear weapons unless the nuclear threat posed by the United States is eliminated, including the US extended deterrence commitment. Thus, it will be interesting to see how the US will approach North Korea since decades of pressure-based tactics have failed to make the country denuclearize.
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