Maritime dimensions of the conflict in Yemen
A Houthi spokesperson shows military equipment on RWABEE (Source: Al-Masirah)
02 February 2022
In recent years, the civil war in Yemen has been the main driver of insecurity in the southern part of the Red Sea. While it remains primarily a land-based conflict, the potential implications in the maritime environment are significant.
By Dr. Dirk Siebels - MaRisk Manager and Senior Analyst
Due to Yemen’s strategic location, any changes of the threat level for merchant ships passing along the country’s coastline must be closely monitored. Moreover, the conflict is not limited to Yemen. Drone and missile attacks by Houthi forces against targets in Saudi Arabia and most recently the UAE are ongoing, once again highlighting the conflict’s regional dimension.
Broadly speaking, the civil war is fought between factions in northern Yemen that make up the Houthi government, and factions in southern Yemen around former president Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, supported by a coalition that is largely made up of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Hadi government is recognised by the UN as Yemen’s ‘legitimate’ government.
Dynamics in southern Yemen, however, further complicate the situation. The UAE has progressively shifted its support toward the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a coalition of several movements agitating for interdependence. This has created a difficult relationship between the STC and the Hadi government and, by extension, between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
As mentioned above, the conflict is centred on land yet there has always been a maritime dimension as well. Maritime attacks by Houthi forces peaked in 2018 with anti-ship missile attacks against coalition warships and support craft as well as missiles and WBIEDs targeting Saudi-flagged tankers in the Red Sea. More recently, Houthi attacks have shifted to targets on land, mainly on oil-related infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Some attacks against port facilities, however, have underlined that merchant ships may suffer from collateral damage, even when the respective vessels are not directly targeted.
As neither side seems to have a clear path towards military victory, the conflict in Yemen appears to be intractable in the short to medium term. In our monthly report, our analyst team looks at the current and potential implications for merchant vessels passing through the Gulf of Aden and the southern part of the Red Sea. In addition, three scenarios for future developments underline how complicated the ongoing negotiations to bring Yemen’s civil war to an end really are.
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