Is bad weather reducing threats to Black Sea shipping?
The image displays a picturesque sea in Odessa, Ukraine. Image: Catherine Tskho / Unsplash
15 February 2024
Shipping operations in the northern Black Sea has been hampered by local weather conditions during the winter months. This has affected military operations as well, which poses an interesting question: has the winter weather decreased the security threats to shipping?
By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea analyst
The full year of 2023 saw a nearly 17% increase in the number of recorded incidents in the Black Sea compared with 2022. This corresponds to the Black Sea becoming a greater part of the frontline during 2023 the second year of the war in Ukraine with an increased focus on maritime operations.
However, the recorded incidents were not evenly dispersed throughout the 2023, as incidents involving Ukrainian Danube and Black Sea ports rose following the Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, in July 2023. But the Black Sea then saw fewer incidents at the end of 2023 coinciding with the increasing trade using the Ukraine ‘Humanitarian Corridor’ for vessels transiting to the same Black Sea port which had been part of the UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative.
The image illustrates the number of incidents per month. Source: Risk Intelligence
During the winter months several, both eastern and western, Black Sea ports reported operational closures or reduced operational capacity due to local weather conditions. Furthermore, concerns were noted in late 2023, when the first winter weather arrived, on how this might affect shipping in relation to how the weather could disperse the drifting mines, both the otherwise moored mines but also the land mines washed into the Black Sea following the breach of the Nova Kakovka dam in June 2023 (although such mines are generally assessed as less dangerous to larger commercial vessels). The 27 December 2023 incident involving the bulk-carrier the VYSSOS, near the Sulina canal, proves that the threat mines, drifting or not, remains a serious issue. January 2024 saw the announcement of a tri-party memorandum of understanding between Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria to combine their mine-clearing efforts in the Black Sea. However, it is believed to take a few months before such joint efforts become fully operational.
It is therefore unlikely, that the fewer incidents during the recent winter, is solely due to local weather conditions. The Black Sea remains a “frontline” battle ground and operational restrictions will likely be lifted once the weather improves. Considering the present circumstances, attacks against civilian, including maritime, infrastructure, are therefore also likely to continue – including naval operations – reflecting the attempts by both Ukraine and Russia to excerpt pressure and control of areas of interest. Nonetheless, it remains unclear to what degree Russia or Ukraine would directly enforce their threats against vessels transiting to each other’s Black Sea ports as potential military targets. Any such circumstances are assessed as most likely to be individual rather than a blanket approach. Collateral damage is still assessed as the most likely and general caution is warranted.
MARITIME SECURITY REPORTS:
There are several Risk Intelligence reports that can help you assess the risk of a specific route, or provide further background for decision-making in the form of a threat assessment
The Voyage Risk Assessment zooms in on a vessel and its voyage specifics, and offers an independent third party view on necessary security measures, wheras the Monthly Intelligence Report offers comprehensive analysis of recent incidents and a threat assessment for three main regions on a subscription basis.
For maritime shipping operators with vessels in the Black Sea, please see our weekly Northern Black Sea Intelligence Report here: