A tale of two seas: the Gulf of Aden and the Persian Gulf

Naval forces from Japan and Spain on a joint exercise in the Gulf of Aden. / Source: EUNAVFOR social media

28 August 2023

The ongoing truce in Yemen has kept a lid on tensions in the Gulf of Aden where the threat situation is stable. In the Persian Gulf, however, an elevated threat of Iranian actions – which could affect merchant traffic – should be noted.

By Guy Wilson-Roberts, Head of Intelligence Analysis

The truce between the warring factions in Yemen remains in place, despite a lack of recent progress in the ongoing peace talks. There are a number of barriers to further progress, not least the issues of government revenue and the sharing of returns from oil exports. Nonetheless, the truce has led to a degree of stability in maritime security in the Gulf of Aden. There has been no repeat of the Houthi drone attacks on oil facilities on Yemen’s southern coast which took place in November 2022. There is some room of optimism that the situation will remain stable in the longer term, but this is certainly not a given for this volatile area.

In contrast to the Gulf of Aden, the Persian Gulf continues to see an elevated threat from Iranian actions that could affect merchant traffic. The vessels seized by Iran earlier this year – the tankers NIOVI and ADVANTAGE SWEET – remain detained. There have been subsequent concerns and even warnings that additional ships might be seized. In the past, such seizures have been an effective strategy for Iran to secure concessions in bargaining on various issues, typically related to its own sanctioned oil exports. Iran has also previously targeted merchant vessels with drone attacks, although not in the last six months.

This threat from Iran has led to the United States increasing its naval deployments in the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf. The US military has also announced that Marines will be able to act as armed guards on merchant vessels in the near future. Such deployments would be a new development and raise a broad range of issues, ranging from insurance-related questions to flag and coastal state requirements and regulations. Scenarios for military personnel from the US and Iran facing off against each other on an oil tanker are completely different to previous ones of privately contracted armed guards defending vessels against pirate boardings in the region. The potential for an escalation between opposing military forces will likely be a significant consideration for any operator considering the US offer.

For both the Gulf of Aden and the Persian Gulf, the maritime security situation is significantly affected by political developments taking place between (and within) regional countries as well as deployments of various naval forces. Political decisions will continue to have a trickle-down effect on the immediate security environment for merchant ships in transit as well as those calling at ports or terminals in the region.

MARITIME SECURITY REPORTS:

There are several Risk Intelligence reports that can assist in evaluating the risk associated with a specific route or provide additional background knowledge to support decision-making through a comprehensive threat assessment.

The Voyage Risk Assessment zooms in on a vessel and its voyage specifics, and offers an independent third party view on necessary security measures, whereas the Monthly Intelligence Report offers comprehensive analysis of recent incidents and a threat assessment for three main regions on a subscription basis.