Just over a year has passed since the Myanmar armed forces seized control of the government on 1 February 2021 following a general election which Aung San Suu Kyi’s party won by a landslide. The country is still caught up in conflict, and warfare has spread to every region. According to reports, more than 1,500 and 8,000 people were killed and detained in the past year.

The opposition to military rule continued their civil disobedience against the military regime. The military junta circulated leaflets warning that participants would be charged with terrorism, incitement and violating the electronic communications law. Thus, in commemorating the first anniversary of the coup, the protesters held a “silent strike” by staying at home, closing their shops and halting activities for six hours.

Progress on elections in Somalia is looking to ensure that the events of 2021 might be firmly in the rear-view mirror. Early in 2021, negotiations over the conduct of the elections broke down with opposing factions mobilising in the streets of Mogadishu. The latter part of the year saw allegations of a coup in support of President Farmajo. These were significant setbacks for the peaceful transition of power in Somalia and raised the prospect of a new civil war.

Despite the progress made to date in 2022, Somalia still faces significant challenges. The federal system itself is under pressure, and local political disputes – such as currently taking place in Hirshabelle – constantly threaten to escalate into armed clashes between factions. At the same time, Somaliland continues to flirt with independence with its overtures to Taiwan and the US, including reports that the government will offer the US a military base in Berbera.

How will the Russia - Ukraine crisis affect shipping and the already challenged supply chain?

The recent massing of Russian military forces on the border of Ukraine can be seen as overt aggression by Russia. But it also highlights the unresolved political issues in this region stemming from Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and Russia’s direct involvement in the two separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, also since 2014. The possibility of further conflict has now increased. This report considers the background to the current situation, how the conflict could play out, and the implications for maritime security in the Black Sea and potentially elsewhere.