Sudanese political deal: A new agreement with the same players
Port Sudan operations may be influenced in the short term by the Political Framework deal agreed on 5 December 2022. Source: Risk Intelligence.
13 December 2022
The new political framework deal has been presented by its backers as a breakthrough for Sudan’s transition, which will consecrate civilian rule over the country. Many others see this as a pie-sharing deal meant to appease rival political elites and to circumvent popular demands for democracy, with no indication of any commitment to a democratic process.
By Kais Makhlouf, MENA Analyst
The signing of the new Political Framework deal on Monday 5 December 2022 in Sudan has been hailed as a step forward by several domestic and foreign parties. The deal stipulates that the military will “return to its barracks”, as General Burhan, leader of the October 2021 coup said, and that the government will gradually return to civilian control. Under the terms of the agreement signed between several political parties and the country’s armed forces, civilians are meant to rule the Sudanese state and the armed forces have committed to professionalising their structure, as well as reducing their involvement in the Sudanese economy. Crucially, the signed deal does not specify how or when the military is to let go of its economic assets, the control of which is one of the main motivators for the armed forces to stay in power. The effort at transition is to be accompanied by several donors and observers, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the US and European partners.
The deal has been presented by political parties and the armed forces as an issue to the crisis shaking the country since the 2019 revolution and worsened by the 2021 coup. However, the vague commitments on either side, the lack of involvement of any grassroot movement, and the Sudanese armed forces’ history of breaching agreements do not bode well for the country. The population does not appear to approve of the deal, and does not appear to believe the armed forces will willingly cede power or control over lucrative economic assets. To wit, demonstrations took place in Khartoum at the same time as the signing ceremony for the Political Framework. In Risk Intelligence’s assessment, it is unlikely that this deal will improve Sudanese stability.
There is no suggestion, beyond the vague wording of the agreement, that the armed forces will effectively let go of political or economic power. Over the decades, previous political agreements have been thrashed, and several of the countries backing the deal are suspected of enabling the 25 October 2021 coup that returned the army to power. To many, the agreement’s goal appears to be to placate dissent among elites rather than setting the groundwork for a further political process. This suggest that several factions may react, or take advantage, of the new political frameowrk. The population is unlikely to be satisfied with a deal they see as designed to isolate it from the political process, and it is likely that demonstrations will continue for the time being, and may increase in intensity for a short period. This may have an incidence on Port Sudan operations in the short run. Similarly, political and armed groups not involved in the negotiations may decide to escalate turmoil, in order to contest a division of the Sudanese pie which hangs them out to dry. It is also possible that armed action take place, albeit a relatively modest scale, against symbolically laden targets.
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