The sea of drones: how unmanned technology is remaking naval warfare

An image showing unmanned marine vehicles from Ukraine. Credit: Ssu.gov.ua / Wikimedia Commons

6 November 2023

As naval drones and drone swarms redefine maritime strategies, a deeper analysis reveals how they challenge traditional naval operations and pave the way for innovative tactics in an increasingly complex and contested seascape.

By Kristian Bischoff, Intelligence analyst - Europe and Russia

In the ever-evolving arena of naval warfare, a transformation of profound significance is underway. This is evident in the use of smaller unmanned surface vessels (USVs), which has risen from smaller scale use in Yemen in the mid-2010s, to a veritable Ukrainian USV naval programme operating at full scale in 2023. At the heart of this shift lies the emergence of naval drones, equipped with sensors and explosives, offering a cost-effective alternative to traditional naval forces. These unmanned vessels challenge established norms and stand poised to revolutionise the maritime theatre. In addition, naval drones in the future may support our critical infrastructure protection, providing valuable awareness and deterrence against adversaries counting on covert and deniable sabotage operations.

Challenging Common Naval Operations:

Ukrainian USV approaching the OLENEGORSKY GORNYAK of the Russian Navy west of Novorossiysk on 04AUG2023 – Ukrainian Navy

At the core of this transformation is the erosion of the dominance of larger surface vessels. Naval drones have the advantage of cost-effectiveness and versatility. They perform reconnaissance, surveillance, and precision strikes, all without risking human lives. In this new maritime paradigm, the boundaries of traditional reconnaissance and targeting are being redrawn. With advanced sensors at their disposal, these drones conduct uninterrupted surveillance with a high level of efficiency, and allowing the operators to strike when the time is right.

Ukrainian USV approaching the IVAN KHURS in the Black Sea on 24MAY2023 – Ukrainian Navy

Moreover, the vulnerability of traditional naval targets is on the rise. Smaller, agile drones are infiltrating the security measures that have long protected larger naval vessels, both at anchor and at sea. These nimble unmanned vessels can bypass radar and anti-aircraft defences, delivering precision strikes on even the most imposing of naval assets. These lessons are now being taught in the Black Sea as part of the wider Ukraine-Russia conflict. Here, swarms of Ukrainian USVs have helped a country without a traditional navy to strike major Russian naval targets to a degree where the Russian Black Sea fleet has vacated the historic Sevastopol Naval Base and moved further east (almost) out of range of the Ukrainian unmanned systems.

Revolutionising Naval Operations:

But the influence of naval drones extends beyond mere challenge, as these systems are on the verge of revolutionising critical aspects of naval strategy. In the realm of amphibious assault and naval landings, they offer an unprecedented level of situational awareness; their ability to clear landing zones of threats like shallow-water mines may contribute to safer and more successful naval landings.

For larger vessels like aircraft carriers, these drones may in the future serve as protective screens in carrier groups. They provide advanced warning and interception capabilities, offering robust defence against incoming threats, whether anti-ship missiles or lurking submarines. In the domain of anti-submarine warfare, drones equipped with sonar and other advanced capabilities will redefine underwater conflict by efficiently searching for and tracking hostile submarines.

Perhaps most notably, naval drones excel at surveillance and reconnaissance in denied areas. These nimble vessels can access and operate in high-risk, contested waters, and communicate with their fellow unmanned aerial sensors in denied airspace. These characteristics empowers naval forces with valuable intelligence, expanding their reach and influence across the maritime theatre.

In addition, naval drones in the future may support our critical infrastructure protection, as sub-surface systems can patrol vast stretches of undersea infrastructure like cables or pipelines, providing valuable awareness and deterrence against adversaries counting on covert and deniable sabotage operations.

The rise of naval drones, armed with sensors and explosives, heralds not just technological progress but a profound transformation of naval warfare. They challenge conventional practices, redefining the roles and capabilities of surface vessels. Simultaneously, they are poised to revolutionise critical aspects of maritime strategy. As naval forces adapt to this shifting landscape, the integration of drones into their operational frameworks takes centre stage in maintaining maritime superiority. The future of naval warfare teeters on a delicate balance between traditional naval power and the innovative potential of unmanned systems, in a seascape that is evolving before our eyes.

MARITIME SECURITY REPORTS:

There are several Risk Intelligence reports that can help you assess the risk of a specific route, or provide further background for decision-making in the form of a threat assessment

The Voyage Risk Assessment zooms in on a vessel and its voyage specifics, and offers an independent third party view on necessary security measures, wheras the Monthly Intelligence Report offers comprehensive analysis of recent incidents and a threat assessment for three main regions on a subscription basis. 

For maritime shipping operators with vessels in the Black Sea, please see our weekly Northern Black Sea Intelligence Report here: