BACKGROUND: Impact of increase in drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil and transport infrastructure on commercial shipping

Image: Ras Tanura oil refinery, Flickr

10 March 2021

In the past few weeks, there has been a marked increase in the number of attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil and transport infrastructure. Missiles and drones have been launched on a weekly basis against a number of Saudi targets, but some observers in the maritime security sector appear unfazed, even as large oil facilities have been hit.

By Kais Makhlouf, MENA Analyst

While Saudi oil and transport facilities are increasingly being targetted, commercial shipping operators largely appear unfazed. This can be attributed to the nature of the targets, and the intentions of those behind the attacks. Saudi Arabia is involved in a conflict in Yemen, and is fighting against the Houthis. While the Houthis have previously directed missiles and drones at vessels, and may do so again, in general they prefer launching these relatively complicated weapons at static targets in Saudi Arabia.

These targets are easier to hit, and serve to discourage Saudi Arabia from continuing the war by increasing the political and economic cost of its continued engagement in Yemen. Attacking other nations’ vessels would unite these countries against them. This partially explains why the threat of vessel attacks is usually, not always, contained to coalition members’ vessels. 

The Houthis could be trying to capitalise on the change in US policy and the increasing war-weariness of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia would prefer to take a step back from the conflict, and has lost important US support. The Saudis are in a relatively weak position now, and the Houthis seek to leverage this loss in Saudi momentum to their advantage. By launching multiple attacks on Saudi civilian assets and attacking Saudi proxies in the South of Yemen, they hope to discourage the Saudis enough that they will be willing to negotiate a political resolution to the conflict.  

The ongoing effort by the Houthis is designed to put extra pressure on the Saudi government by weakening its population’s support for the war, and forcing it to cease operations in Yemen. The Houthis are therefore more likely to target domestic infrastructure rather than international shipping. Ultimately this is meant to improve the Houthis’ negotiating position relative to that of the Saudis during possible peace negotiations.

However, this does not mean that there is no threat of a vessel being targeted when passing through the area, and vessels may targeted for any number of reasons.

FREE LIVE DEMO:

More detailed Threat Assessments can be found on Risk Intelligence’s digital risk planning system.

Book a live demo with us and get an overview of our unrivalled risk assessment and planning tool. With access to the system, you can evaluate both current and future security risks in real time and minimise risks while optimising commercial decision-making.