19 January 2023

Negotiations between the Saudis and Houthis could lead to a form of peace in Yemen, but not necessarily for all. With no major fighting ongoing, the factions’ struggle for control of hydrocarbon facilities, aided by replenished forces, could lead to new threats to shipping along Yemen’s southern coast.

By Kais Makhlouf, MENA analyst

Signs of a peace agreement may be emerging again in Yemen. Negotiations are ongoing between the Houthis and the Saudi government which appears keen to leave the quagmire it waded into in 2015. The negotiations may be paving the way for a de facto Houthi state covering the Houthi heartlands in Northern Yemen, along with Sana’a and Hudaydah. Though talk abounds of a de jure state with all the trappings of an independent country, it is difficult to anticipate the nature of the new entity. In any case, it is certain that the Houthis will be in command of a significant area of Yemeni territory.

Regrettably, this outcome is unlikely to end the war in Yemen. There is no indication that the talks, which exclude the myriad anti-Houthi factions who have borne the brunt of the fighting, will peacefully seal Yemen’s fate. Though the Saudis might think that they are negotiating an end to the war, the Houthis seem to be considering these talks as Saudis negotiating their withdrawal from the war, not Yemen’s future. In the Houthis’ minds, that future will still be written on the battlefield, only without Saudi aircraft attacking their troops. It is no secret that both the Houthis and the various anti-Houthi factions are mulling a resumption of hostilities. These factions have never ceased their infighting, which is ongoing in the centre and east of the country.

With the Saudi threat defused, the Houthis have turned to state-building. They have demanded that salaries be paid with oil money and have implemented new laws in their territories. Recent strikes against facilities on the Gulf of Aden coast exporting oil outside of the Houthis’ remit were likely a function of an effort to secure revenues and weaken their adversaries before the next round of fighting. This signalled a change in threats to trade. With the “Saudi-Houthi war” over, it is likely that the future will see a race to control trade flows. The Houthis no longer seek to inflict costs on hostile actors by harming trade; instead, they seek to be the entity benefiting from trade. In practice, they must therefore control the physical and financial infrastructure for the hydrocarbon trade and ensure that goods are traded through their terminals.

This may lead to a form of “trade war” in which factions disrupt or seize facilities that generate income for their rivals, either through violence or political and financial transactions. While this is certain to disrupt operations at Yemeni ports and terminals, it would likely result in a lower – albeit somewhat different – threat profile to commercial traffic.

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