20 February 2023

Relations between Transnistria and Russia have been strong for a long time, but the war in Ukraine has increased attention on this relationship. With Transnistria seeing itself as separate from Moldova, certain issues , such as fraud, corruption and Russian military activity are of particular concern. Any major developments in Ukraine, leading to conflicts are likely to affect Moldovan-Transnistria relations.

By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea analyst

The unrecognized break-away state of Transnistria is located between Moldova to the west and Ukraine to the east. Previously it rarely received much attention. However, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 – this changed. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there have been several terrorism style attacks against local government buildings.

Officially known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, the area sought independence in 1990 following the breakup of the Soviet Union, with the thought of remaining within a future Soviet Union. Though this never materialised – a ceasefire agreement was reached between Russia, Moldova, and Transnistria, in mid-1992 – close ties with modern Russia have been maintained and Russian peacekeeping forces have long had a presence in the area. It has de facto independence of sorts as part of Moldova, but various issues remain contentious – such as the Russian forces. Various talks have previously attempted to seek an end to the presence of the forces and the current pro-European president of Moldova, Maia Sandu, has previously expressed a desire to see the withdrawal of the Russian troops and military equipment.

Fraud and corruption are assessed as significant issues throughout society in Transnistria. Reports indicating arms smuggling activity, is likely connected to the Russian war in Ukraine. Smuggling of common commercial goods in order to avoid paying taxes and customs, and the smuggling of commodities is also considered as part of wider organised crime activities, utilising their own smuggling networks. Furthermore, several incidents of smuggling are also known to take place in connection with normal logistics operations.

The current situation is likely to continue in the near term, although any significant developments to war in Ukraine, is also likely to influence the Moldovan-Transnistria relations. Any further militarisation in or of the Transnistria break-away region is, as it stands, unlikely.

The aspirations of Moldova to join European Union, with the country gaining candidate status in June 2022, further focuses the concerns regarding Transnistria and attempts to find possible solutions. It is therefore likely that Transnistria will continue to require attention as the war in Ukraine also continues – a rise in tensions cannot be ruled out if Russia sees this sphere of influence as being under threat.

MARITIME SECURITY REPORTS:

There are several Risk Intelligence reports that can help you assess the risk of a specific route, or provide further background for decision-making in the form of a threat assessment

The Voyage Risk Assessment zooms in on a vessel and its voyage specifics, and offers an independent third party view on necessary security measures, wheras the Monthly Intelligence Report offers comprehensive analysis of recent incidents and a threat assessment for three main regions on a subscription basis. 

For maritime shipping operators with vessels in the Black Sea, please see our weekly Northern Black Sea Intelligence Report here: