27 September 2024

Venezuela’s claims over territory in Guyana remain a potential threat to security in the region. Although the area has seen a sharp decrease of maritime activity, it remains a crucial corridor for the transportation of containers, oil and gas exports, and the operation of offshore rigs.

By Diego Briceño, Latin America and Caribbean Analyst

In late 2023, tensions soared between Guyana and Venezuela after the latter held a national referendum that laid claim over two-thirds of the territory of Guyana. The threat of war increased, leading to Lloyd’s Joint War Committee to add Guyana’s offshore sector to its list of areas of elevated risk. Fears of reckless military action from the Venezuelan regime resumed after the country went through a blatant electoral fraud in July 2024, with questions remaining as to how the threat of war might impact maritime operations. 

Soon after the 2023 referendum results were made public, Venezuela’s high-ranking officials issued several public appeals to retake sovereign territory. Other measures entailed a military buildup in the Anacoco island (state of Bolivar), military exercises along its Atlantic coastline, and the redeployment of three Peykaap III-class missile boats and at least two Buk M2E surface-to-air systems at the country’s easternmost coast guard outposts of Punta Barima and Guairia.

After several months into the controversy the situation is far from being stable and the risk of miscalculation remains high. In the past year, the Venezuelan military has increased its readiness to move APCs through tropical forests, supplied its troops into its easternmost military outpost, and boosted its amphibious capability at the Cuyuni River. However, the military deployments suggest that the security establishment is more interested on showcasing strength and the ability to operate in Guyana while retaining conventional military means to deter a foreign incursion into its own territory. 

Moreover, the two countries face considerable obstacles that reduce the probability of conventional warfare. In the first place, Guyana has very limited military capabilities which are unlikely to contribute to fuel a security dilemma. In the second place, Venezuela would face challenging terrain in Guyana that would reduce its ability to hold on to large swaths of territory through infantry deployments. Therefore, military incursions would likely be limited to small-scale undertakings as a larger assault would require military forces to cross into Brazil to go through the Paracaima mountain range. Similarly, the areas suitable for amphibious assaults are almost restricted to Guyana’s capital and waterways in remote areas, further reducing Venezuela’s capability to efficiently control the territory it intends to annex.

The current outlook underscores that the most likely scenario entails hybrid warfare tactics. The Venezuelan government is expected to continue looking for national unity through claiming an external threat, elevating the frequency of aggressive public remarks from President Maduro and senior military leaders. However, other tactics could follow such as the harassment of vessels operating in Guyana’s territory. An example of the tactics that could be employed was reported in January 2019 when the Venezuelan Navy made a reckless attempt to land a helicopter on a survey vessel operating in Guyana’s EEZ.

Other military actions remain possible, including small-scale incursions across waterways located deep in mainland areas and the deployment patrol ships into Guyana’s EEZ. These manoeuvres, while not very consequential, could be aimed to constantly threaten Guyana’s leadership while hoping to force a favourable agreement.

Venezuela’s forces are unlikely to take on more aggressive actions, however, such as imposing a naval blockade of port terminals and the boarding of merchant vessels. In the first place, the country has limited capability to perform such acts consistently over time. In the second place, these tactics offer few perks while risking hardening the stance of foreign powers, including neighbouring countries such as Brazil.

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