31 August 2023

With the peak shipping season approaching, logistics operators are advised to remember that the end of the year brings many distinctive challenges, including a much higher threat of falling victim to cargo theft than during the rest of the year.

By Jeanne Albin, LandRisk Security Specialist

The dynamics of cargo theft are influenced by many factors, not the least of which is time. In fact, the existing evidence highlights several temporal patterns. For example, we know that cargo theft is much more likely to occur during the weekend than on any other day of the week, as offenders prefer to limit the risk of running into potential witnesses and, instead, take advantage of cargo being at rest (i.e., left unattended) to strike—a low risk, high-reward strategy. However, certainly the most significant of the temporal patterns related to cargo theft is seasonality. In practice, this is best demonstrated by an increase in thefts during the last quarter of the year. Indeed, analyses from the incidents recorded on the LandRisk Logistics system in 2020, 2021 and 2022 indicate that the months of October, November and December present the highest incidence of cargo and fuel theft (targeting both facilities and trucks in transit).

The reason behind this increase in theft incidents is fairly simple to explain: it is linked to a rise in opportunities created by the seasonal demand fluctuations witnessed at the end of the year. Back-to-school demand, as well as (and most crucially) the coming of the holiday season, cause freight volumes to soar following the end of the summer, as high-value goods move through the logistics chain in time for key end-of-the-year sales dates such as Black Friday or the Christmas season. And whilst demand has a significant impact on the type of goods and commodities most sought by criminals, the daily movements and activities recorded at particular places and times heavily influence their choice of targets and modi operandi. Thus, a change in the routines of potential targets (in this case, cargo carriers and logistics facilities) will reflect in theft opportunities—even more so as the stress to keep the supply chain efficient throughout the peak season may lead some operators to make less sound security-related decisions than they otherwise would. In other words, from an offender’s point of view, an increase in freight volumes will be translated into a rise in the number of potentially suitable targets.

Luckily, whilst data clearly indicates that the threat of cargo theft is particularly high during the peak logistics season, it can be mitigated through the implementation of a sound risk management framework and the adoption of appropriate preventive mitigative measures.

WEBINAR:

Breaking the (supply) chain - from cargo theft hotspots to activist movements

How important is analytical work to predict future security threats for land-based logistics? The webinar on 13 September, offered a deeper understanding of current and future threats for land-based logistics and looked at the potential impacts to businesses.