09 February 2022

The first months of 2021 saw an escalation of the confrontation between Iran and Israel, which evolved into acts of tit-for-tat sabotage. In the Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea area, there were four attacks on Israeli linked vessels, which Iran is likely responsible for. There have been no Iran linked attacks on merchant vessels since July of last year, but there are no guarantees if JCPOA negotiations this week falter. Dr. Guy Wilson Roberts provides an update.

By Dr. Guy Wilson-Roberts - Head of Intelligence Analysis

There were four attacks against Israeli-linked vessels in the Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea area, for which Iran is likely responsible. These attacks were likely linked to attacks on Iranian vessels that took place in the Red Sea and off the coast of coast of Syria in 2019 and 2020. As well, there was the high-profile assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist in November 2020, reportedly carried out by Israel. The outcome of the ongoing negotiations on the revival of the Iran nuclear deal – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – is likely to have a significant impact on the future of this confrontation and the broader security situation in the Middle East.

Iran’s President Raisi, who took office in August 2021, has adopted a tougher negotiating position than his predecessor President Rouhani in talks on the revival of the nuclear deal. The Raisi government’s hardline foreign policy stance looks to be underpinned by the full support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), which is a powerful branch of Iran’s military responsible for special operations that is often regarded as an independent actor in the region that was sometimes out-of-step with the Rouhani government. There have been no attacks since July 2021 against merchant vessels. But this might only be a temporary situation as long as the JCPOA negotiations – an indication of Iran exercising restraint to show good faith during the negotiations and the government’s current ability to work consistently towards a strategic goal.

There is no guarantee that the JCPOA negotiations will end with a deal. Although the Biden administration has signalled a wish to return to the JCPOA after the Trump administration withdrew in 2018, there are still significant compromises to be made – particularly over sanctions on Iran – before a deal can be made. Furthermore, Israel’s opposition to both Iran’s nuclear programme and the JCPOA means that Israel can act as a spoiler to the whole process. The potential collapse of the nuclear negotiations could lead to a further escalation of the tit-for-tat conflict between Iran and Israel, with additional implications for security in the region.

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