8 April 2021

The strategically important city of Palma in Northern Mozambique was attacked by insurgents from Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jammah on 24 March. The insurgents managed to grab control of large sections of the city and international personnel from the area were quickly evacuated. Dr. Thomas Mandrup, Africa consultant, provides an assessment of the current security situation in the area, and of the emerging threat to port facilities in Pemba.

By Dr. Thomas Mandrup, Africa consultant

On 24 March 2021, the strategically important city of Palma in Northern Mozambique was attacked by insurgents from Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jammah (ASWJ), who managed to grab control of large sections of the city. The attack on Palma led to a hasty evacuation of international personnel from the area with locals escaping in boats whilst under mortar and small arms fire. Most Mozambican security forces initially fled the fighting, but private contractors managed to provide some air cover for the fleeing people on the ground. Only on Sunday 4 April did the government security forces declare that the ASWJ forces had been pushed out of the city itself.

The ASWJ is still present in most of the surrounding areas of Palma and the Afungi peninsula, the site of Total's Liquid Gaz construction site. As a consequence of the attack and the security forces' inability to stave off the attack, Total decided to evacuate all its staff from its construction site. The site had been partly closed since early January 2021 due to attacks from ASWJ and was supposed to have reopened shortly after the 24 March attack. The commitment to reopening followed government guarantees that the area was secured by its forces. The attack on Palma and the Total closure puts the entire Mozambican multi-billion dollar gas adventure in doubt, thereby jeopardising the Mozambican economic recovery.

The evolving insurgency

Since October 2017, an increasing number of insurgent attacks have been carried out in Mozambique's far northern province, Cabo Delgado. The attacks initially targeted police personnel and installations. Later, the local rural-based population and multinational companies operating in the area became the targets of attacks. Since late 2019 the frequency of attacks has increased significantly, and Cabo Delgado is experiencing several attacks every week.

Several thousand people are reported to have been killed since the start of the insurgency, and by the end of March 2021, more than 700,000 locals have been displaced by the fighting. The actual number of internally displaced persons is likely higher. The violence shown by the ASWJ insurgents and their coordinated attacks illustrates that the insurgency has reached a higher and more dangerous level. ASWJ is part of the Islamic State in Central Africa (ISCA) and this immediately raises its profile beyond mere local unrest, and foreign radicalised elements now form part of this growing insurgency in Northern Mozambique.

The May 2020 decision by Tanzania to deploy troops on its border was an illustration that the other African countries, especially the neighbouring states, are increasingly alarmed over the security deterioration in Northern Mozambique. The fear is that ISCA will establish a bridgehead in Southern Africa that might destabilise the rest of the region.

Pressure has been mounting upon the Mozambican government to accept some kind of intervention and regional countries have been considering a military response to support the Mozambican governments attempt to curb the growing insurgency. The military can help create a window for a political solution to take place. However, this requires that the Mozambican authorities are willing to address the root causes of the conflict, which it has so far not been willing to do. The Mozambican government currently seems incapable of controlling the insurgency without outside assistance. 

The increasing threat

The threat to the offshore industry remains relatively limited for now, but port facilities in Pemba are under increasing threat. Pemba is a crucial hub for offshore operations and increasing scrutiny is now on the port and the surrounding area.

Although Pemba is some 600 kilometres south of Palma, the current situation is highly dynamic. It is unclear whether the attack on Palma will be a tipping point that will see increased action by the Mozambican government, with outside assistance, to restrict the expansion of insurgent activities. Or, whether it will see the insurgency become bolder in its operational reach.

Given this dynamic situation, up-to-date information becomes more crucial to understand how specific types of commercial operations – onshore and offshore – might be affected in the near future.

For further guidance and security risk assessments in relation to offshore operations in the wider Mozambique area, please contact CCO Jim Pascoe using this form.

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