11 August 2021

In April this year, Somalia appeared to be on the brink of a political crisis that was threatening to spiral out of control into open conflict between factions. Militia forces were arming themselves in Mogadishu and engaged in open clashes in the streets. The mobilisation of a political opposition to President Farmajo’s attempt to extend his term has led to planned elections. But negotiations could break down any time and the security outlook is unclear.

By Dr. Guy Wilson-Roberts, Head of Intelligence Analysis

Somalia’s looming political crisis that threatened to spiral out of control and into open conflict between factions in April of this year came in response to President Farmajo’s attempt to extend his term by two years after an impasse over a new process for country-wide elections. Militia forces were arming themselves in Mogadishu and engaged in open clashes in the streets, but opposition presidential candidates and the presidents of Jubaland and Puntland provinces condemned President Farmajo’s extension and mobilised the opposition.

Since then, discussions led by Prime Minister Roble have reached a tentative compromise. Upper house elections will take place shortly – delayed from 25 July – which will lead to presidential elections in October: if everything stays on track.

There is still a risk of breakdown of the compromises reached and the process has exposed the fragility of relations between the federal government in Mogadishu and the various provincial governments. As well, against the backdrop of election instability, Somaliland recently and successfully carried out its own local elections, for some buttressing its case for independence.

This political instability has come at a bad time for Somalia. Insecurity is already high in Mogadishu in particular, where militant group al-Shabab continues to be able to operate – carrying out IED attacks and targeted assassinations – seemingly with impunity. Although the Somali National Army (SNA) has been active in the countryside, and with provincial forces in various areas, al-Shabab has still not been defeated.

African Union (AMISOM) force provide a crucial security presence. But their mandate is supposed to conclude at the end of 2021. Factionalism in the SNA does not help, and it is far from clear that the SNA can fulfill all of Somalia’s security needs in the future. Political relations between Somalia and Kenya, which is a major contributor to AMISOM, have also been rocky.

In recent years, Somalia has made some notable improvements in security. This includes maritime security, where progress has been made on legal frameworks and on offshore patrol capabilities. On land, areas where criminal/militant groups (including pirates) have been reduced – although not eliminated.

The political crisis this year has been a setback to these improvements. Vacuums in governance inevitably leave spaces for others to occupy, to the overall detriment of the already precarious security situation. Somalia is now walking back from the brink. But until elections are completed, we will not know for sure that the crisis has been averted.

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