16 February 2022

Progress on elections in Somalia is looking to ensure that the events of 2021 might be firmly in the rear-view mirror. Despite the progress made to date in 2022, Somalia still faces significant challenges, however. With internal security and the federal system under pressure, how might maritime operations be affected in the months to come?

By Dr. Guy Wilson-Roberts - Head of Intelligence Analysis

Early in 2021, negotiations over the conduct of the elections broke down with opposing factions mobilising in the streets of Mogadishu. The latter part of the year saw allegations of a coup in support of President Farmajo. These were significant setbacks for the peaceful transition of power in Somalia and raised the prospect of a new civil war.

Despite the progress made to date in 2022, Somalia still faces significant challenges. The federal system itself is under pressure, and local political disputes – such as currently taking place in Hirshabelle – constantly threaten to escalate into armed clashes between factions. At the same time, Somaliland continues to flirt with independence with its overtures to Taiwan and the US, including reports that the government will offer the US a military base in Berbera.

Internal security is also still a problem. Al-Shabab is operating with relative impunity in Mogadishu and continuing to carry out terrorist attacks, as well as remaining entrenched in areas of the countryside. The Islamic State is also establishing a presence in Mogadishu, using extortion as a fundraising method. At the same time, the Somali government is negotiating with the African Union and the international community a replacement force for AMISOM, the mandate for which expires on 31 March 2022. The intention is to have the Somali army fully responsible for internal security by the end of 2023, which will be a significant challenge.

As well, larger political and military forces are on the move in the wider region. Turkey has been a major supporter of the Somali government, including through the training of elite military and police forces. Somalia is now looking to improve relations with the UAE, which is itself boosting its presence in southern Yemen and the Gulf of Aden. China’s military base in Djibouti will shortly be fully operational, giving the Chinese navy a permanent presence in the area. This will likely boost maritime security with more grey hulls. But it will also make the Gulf of Aden and the southern Red Sea more of a focus for regional and global political rivalries.

Somalia’s immediate political situation is of ongoing interest, including its difficult relationship with Kenya to the south that has offshore implications. This will affect security for operations in the country. But the role of the Horn of Africa in strategic thinking by external players is again changing. The civil war raging in Ethiopia is also a related issue. The wider region will remain an area of particular security interest for the remainder of 2022 and beyond.

FREE LIVE DEMO:

Do you want to see how the Risk Intelligence System works?

Sign up for a live demo with us and get an overview of our unrivalled risk assessment and planning tool. With access to the system, you can evaluate both current and future security risks in real time and minimise risks while optimising commercial decision-making.