24 August 2022

Following a challenging period for Egypt, now the threat of terrorism in North Sinai is adding pressure to the government. The extremist jihadists from Daesh Wilaya Sinai resumed their activity at the beginning of this summer, conducting attacks that indicate intentions to strike at the Suez Canal when possible.

By Louis Borer, Senior analyst

In addition to the many challenges faced by Egypt, including inflation and the grain crisis due to the conflict in Ukraine, the Egyptian government must deal with terrorism in North Sinai, which remains a marginalised area that extremist jihadists from Daesh Wilaya Sinai (DWS) use as a rear base. While the group was still known as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, it achieved recognition in 2013 with its best-known attack against the Panamanian-flagged container ship COSTCO ASIA, while the ship was transiting through the Canal, followed by two more attacks 2014 and 2015 against Egyptian navy vessels near the Egyptian coast.

Despite the fact that no major incidents have occurred in Suez since 2013, and in the Sinai region since 2019, DWS resumed its activity at the beginning of this summer. Raids took place recently in May and June, when DWS claimed responsibility for the death of 11 Egyptians soldiers, after attacking at a water pumping station checkpoint at el-Qantara, along the Suez Canal. This was followed by another ambush in northern Sinai on security forces. On 11 August, another raid on el-Qantara targeted an electricity transformer on the eastern edge of the Canal.

These attacks demonstrate that the group still intends to strike at the Egyptian military, government targets and Suez Canal when possible. The grounding of the EVER GIVEN in March 2021 has once again highlighted the vulnerability of the Canal, and the impact on maritime trade in case of blockage, a scenario that could be a source of inspiration for terrorist groups. Given this recent increase in activity, particular attention should be paid to Daesh activity in Egypt, which has ranked 7th in the number of attacks claimed by Daesh since the beginning of the year.

As of today, no further attacks have occurred along the Canal. The Egyptian government has significantly improved security along the Canal over the past decade. An attack is unlikely but given the potential impact the threat is assessed as elevated. At present, DWS does not seem to have the capacity to lead a complex operation far from the Sinai, and even less on the high seas. But, used to using small arms and light weapons (SALW) or RPGs, opportunistic firing from the shore or the coastal areas remains possible: especially in the waiting areas where the ship does not move, especially in case of a blockage such as during the grounding of the EVER GIVEN, where up to 120 ships were blocked at the extremities of the Canal, at Port Said and Fayed.

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