16 May 2022

How is the reunification of Libya progressing? The Force Majeure on Libyan oil terminals has reminded us that with the 2021 elections cancelled, and with no clear path forward, political figures in Libya are struggling for control of a process that seems to be stalled.

By Kais Makhlouf, Middle East & North Africa Analyst

Libya is still divided in two. Following the cancelled December 2021 elections, the country is no closer to reunification than it was before the Government of National Unity (GNU) took power in early 2021. The GNU is based in Tripoli and controls the west, whereas the Libyan National Army (LNA), based in Benghazi, controls the east.

Now however, former interior minister Fathi Bashagha is claiming the Premiership in the west. Having been appointed Prime Minister (PM) by the country’s House of Representatives, the LNA-allied parliament, Bashagha is now seeking to install his Government of National Stability (GNS) in Tripoli. Sitting GNU PM Dbeiba is refusing to cede power, claiming he will hold elections in June 2022, and that he will only submit to an elected government. There is no indication that any elections are being organised in the country. Instead, pro-Dbeiba militias have mobilised and are concentrating in Tripoli to deter any attempt by pro-Bashagha militias of forcibly installing the GNS. In the eyes of many in the west, the LNA backing for the GNS suggests an agreement between Bashagha and Haftar, with the former being a vehicle for the latter’s takeover.

Both Dbeiba and Bashagha have so far refrained from violence and have relied on politicking, likely fearful of tensions spiralling out of control. Both men also hail from Misrata, increasing the potential lethality of the struggle, but also keeping the more aggressive instincts at bay. Dbeiba has been promising sums to various constituencies in a bid to shore up support while also displaying his proximity to the hardliner, often Islamist, militias that are against any collaboration with Haftar’s east. Bashagha has concentrated on sapping Dbeiba’s support, by convincing ministers to resign and militias to switch allegiance. He has also made overtures to foreign actors, including Turkey, to gain their support.

In order to support Bashagha’s bid for control of the west, the LNA is accused of having fomented the strikes and action that caused a force majeure across various oil fields and export terminals. Indeed, an interruption in exports chokes the GNU’s ability to pay salaries and secure loyalties, thereby weakening Dbeiba. In that case, it is possible that the Force Majeure continue for some time, as they are politically motivated, and part of an effort to unseat Dbeiba.

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Risk Intelligence provides a service that closely monitors developments in Libyan ports with respect to security situation and operations. The information is of use for both security/operations staff as well as commercial departments fixing the charters.