12 September 2024

Indonesia’s new president Prabowo Subianto will not stray far from his predecessor’s policies surrounding the countries maritime domain.

By Thomas Timlen, South-east Asia Analyst

Ten years ago, then incoming Indonesian President Joko Widodo called on ASEAN leaders meeting in Myanmar to closely cooperate in maintaining maritime security, especially with regard to the South China Sea, where all stakeholders were encouraged to exercise restraint and to seek solutions to the numerous disputes there based on international law.

This call aligned with the goals outlined within the five pillars of Jokowi’s national maritime-axis doctrine that included: rebuilding Indonesia's maritime culture, maintaining and managing Indonesia’s marine resources, providing priority to the development of maritime infrastructure and connectivity, enhancing regional cooperation to eliminate the sources of conflicts at sea, and to further develop domestic maritime defence forces.

Although last on the list, maritime defence was far from the least important. Widodo felt that a strong maritime defence was necessary not only to maintain maritime sovereignty and wealth, but also as a form of Indonesia’s responsibility to maintain the safety of shipping and maritime security.

Despite a continuation of disputes and confrontations between maritime nations in the South China Sea, none to date have escalated tensions to an extent to ignite military conflicts, while the innocent passage of merchant shipping has been maintained.

Will Jokowi’s successor, president-elect Prabowo Subianto, maintain the five pillars of Indonesia’s present maritime policy post-inauguration on 20 October 2024? Initial indications show no signs that Subianto plans any significant departures from Jokowi’s policies, including those that relate to the maritime domain.

Amongst other things, Subianto appears ready to continue Widodo's economic and infrastructure development projects, including the relocation of the administrative capital from Jakarta to Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN). Along with an emphasis on strengthening Indonesia's maritime defence capacity, he reportedly hopes to stimulate the nation's economic transformation by turning IKN into a global maritime hub and leveraging it to enhance economic interest in eastern Indonesia.

With this in mind, a gradual north-eastward shift of Indonesia’s maritime centre of gravity towards the country’s new capital in Nusantara, in both operational and political terms, appears to be inevitable.

RISK INTELLIGENCE REPORTS:

Stay at the forefront of maritime security with our Monthly Intelligence Report!

Additional analysis of Indonesia’s maritime policy under its new president will be addressed in the focus article in the October edition of Risk Intelligence’s Monthly Intelligence Report. Enhance your situational awareness and keep your operations secure—subscribe to the Monthly Intelligence Report now.