9 August 2024

While the situation remains highly volatile, the maritime dimension of the conflict pitting Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah remains only marginal to date. Against a backdrop of rising tensions in northern Israel with Hezbollah, which has far greater capabilities than Hamas, the port of Haifa could be a target for Hezbollah, which flew a surveillance drone over the port in June.

By Louis Borer, Senior analyst

The maritime dimension of the conflict between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah remains marginal to date. However, in the context of a larger-scale conflict with Hezbollah, Israel's main ports are likely to become priority strategic targets. On the southern front, Hamas's capabilities have been greatly reduced following the current Israeli ground operation in Gaza. But if the situation on the northern front deteriorates, the port of Haifa could be exposed in the event of an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

Indeed, the situation remains highly volatile, particularly since the attack on 27 July on the village of Majdal Shams by a Falaq-1 rocket, in which Hezbollah denies any involvement but which led to an Israeli retaliation against the group’s leadership. That same weekend, an Israeli Navy Sa'ar VI corvette neutralized a Hezbollah UAV that was approaching the Karish and Qana offshore gas field. While this is not the first time that the site has been overflown with a reconnaissance drone by Hezbollah, it remains to be determined whether the UAV was equipped with a warhead. However, the exploitation of the Qana gas field remains a priority and a major source of potential revenue for Hezbollah, and it does not appear to be in their interest to initiate an attack in the area.

As far as the port of Haifa is concerned, it should be remembered that in the event of an escalation, the port is located just 27 km from the border with Lebanon, exposing the city and its port to Hezbollah's missile threat. In addition, the port of Haifa is home to strategic Israeli naval sites that can be clearly identified on the video of a Hezbollah drone flying over the port on 18 June, as well as several warships, energy installations and a Shayetet 7 unit.

However, while the port of Haifa could be a potential strategic target, the threat would certainly focus on military and energy installations; while the general functioning of the port could be disrupted, commercial and civilian infrastructures would probably not be priority targets. As well, the level of direct threat would be mitigated by the deployment of Israeli Iron Dome and David's Sling missile defence systems in the area, which are on high alert. The video published by Hezbollah in June shows its interest in Haifa, as well as good quality image intelligence with a clear ability to identify sites, but its publication seems to be above all a communication operation as part of a psychological warfare effort.

Haifa has also been threatened by the Houthis in Yemen. On 23 June, Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed that they had carried out “joint attacks” (with the Iraqi Islamic Resistance) against the port of Haifa and several of its ships. The attacks were not confirmed by Israel and there is no evidence to support them having taken place. Here again, the Houthis' approach is part of a communications strategy designed to give the impression that they have a certain ability to strike in depth and to extend their fight to the Red Sea area. Such unconfirmed reports of attacks by the Houthis should therefore be treated with extreme caution, as the images and videos published most often come from other operations.

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