24 July 2023

The Black Sea Grain Initiative ended on 17 July, following the announcement by Russia that it would not agree to a new extension. The BSGI is therefore no longer in effect. Subsequently, first Russia then Ukraine announced that vessels bound for their Black Sea ports, would be considered as possibly carrying military cargo and therefore as parties to each – rendering vessels as potentially legitimate military targets.

By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea analyst

Russia has long stressed its dissatisfaction that not enough was being done to facilitate the exports of its own fertilizer products, as part of the initiative and stressed this as the reason for withdrawing from participating in the initiative. Initially brokered in July 2022, the UN backed initiative, reached between Ukraine, Russia and Turkey, permitted the export was to facilitate the safe navigation for export of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizers, including ammonia from the Ukrainian Black Sea ports of Odessa, Pivdenny and Chornomorsk, is therefore no longer considered operational.

Although it was no great surprise that Russia announced it would no longer participate in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the recent developments have, to some degree, heightened the tensions in the area. Initially one aspect which, has changed the dynamics of the war, in recent months and this is that the Ukrainian forces are now undertaking counter-offensive operations against the Russian forces and not extending its participation, could be, for Russia, a justifiable way to put further pressure on Ukraine and its Western supporters, by other means.

The announcement by Russia that any ships travelling to Ukraine's Black Sea ports would be viewed by the Russian military as possibly carrying military cargo, effectively rendering them in effect as legitimate military targets, was followed by a similar statement by Ukraine. It remains uncertain to what degree either Russia or Ukraine are willing to act on these threats, but the Russian threat highlights the commitment to limit any traffic into Ukrainian Black Sea ports. This is, in effect, reinstating the Russian prohibition of navigation north of 45-21N. The overall security situation can change at short notice and without prior warning.

The regional impact on commercial maritime trade varies depending on location. While any real legitimization of targeting of vessels is tied to positive identification of the vessels having arms onboard, and therefore highly dubious, the announcements on both sides are likely an attempt to drive up insecurity and insurance prices - and in an attempt to make trade untenable. Threats from drifting sea-mines, and that Russia has now reiterated the de facto closure of the north-western Black Sea. Recent incidents have also indicated that Russia continues to be capable of targeting the Odessa coast, including the port and port facilities. The targeting of Odessa port is likely intended as some Russian show of force and capability, but this further underlines the unpredictable nature of the current situation.

Although Ukraine and the UN have said they continue to explore possible avenues for further exports of grain and other foodstuffs from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, any significant and immediate solution appears unlikely in the near term due to the actors influencing the situation continue to seek to influence different outcomes and with different priorities.

MARITIME SECURITY REPORTS:

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The Voyage Risk Assessment zooms in on a vessel and its voyage specifics, and offers an independent third party view on necessary security measures, wheras the Monthly Intelligence Report offers comprehensive analysis of recent incidents and a threat assessment for three main regions on a subscription basis. 

For maritime shipping operators with vessels in the Black Sea, please see our weekly Northern Black Sea Intelligence Report here: