9 August 2023

Algeria is seeking to reclaim its diplomatic primacy as a changing world risks making its policies obsolete. It is difficult to assess what shape Algeria’s new diplomacy will take, or whether it will shed its long-standing non-alignment policy.

By Kais Makhlouf, MENA analyst

Algeria is seeking to return to its historical role as a respected diplomatic actor. Prior to its “dark decade” during the civil war in the 1990s, the 43-million strong North African country was held in high regard for its “wise realism” approach to foreign policy. Indeed, the country was broadly acknowledged for its restrained approach and its effective commitment to the cause of decolonisation throughout the world. The Algerian government provided material and political support to a range of causes and succeeded in maintaining a good standing across political blocs.

Its doctrine of restrained speech, along with its consistent and long-term support to the causes it chose, gave it sway in a region where rulers were often seen as bending whichever way the wind blowed. In particular, it gave Algeria clout among Arab and African populations, further enhancing its ability to achieve the diplomatic goals it pursued, much to the displeasure of other ambitious nations such as Egypt, or Gaddafi’s Libya.

The country withdrew from the international scene under the 5 mandates of President Bouteflika, allowing other players, notably Morocco, space to advance their own foreign policy objectives. The dismissal of Bouteflika and his replacement by President Tebboune has prompted talk of a return of Algerian on the diplomatic scene.

This return has become more and more visible as Algeria begins asserting itself more forcefully. The diplomatic drama of 2022 between Algeria, Morocco, and Spain, was an effect of Algeria’s muscular negotiation on gas exports with Spain, and a reaction to Morocco’s own aggressive efforts to align itself with the West. Algerian diplomacy is now using a rhetoric it had traditionally eschewed: it has pointed fingers at other states, declared that an attack on Libya’s Tripoli was a red line, and even accused the UAE of being behind the July 2023 Niger coup. Algeria has certainly become more willing to throw its weight around.

In that vein, Algeria has deepened its relations with Russia, perhaps in contrast to Morocco’s alignment with the West and its normalisation of ties with Israel, which Algeria sees as an already materialising security threat. Algeria has expressed its support for Russo-Malian relations, meaning Wagner’s deployment in the country. It has likewise signalled its alignment with Russia on the Libyan dossier, likely in a bid to impact oil and gas supplies to Europe. Algeria has every interest in complicating oil and gas outflows from Libya as it enjoys the windfalls of a continuing stalemate. After all, the Italians moved quickly to sign a multi-billion euro package to secure oil supply at the start of the war in Ukraine, in part because few alternative and reliable providers exist. And there perhaps lies the motivation for Algeria’s renewed diplomacy.

In a world of fading certainties, such as peace in Europe, French influence in the Sahel, and Arab-Israeli antagonism, Algeria offers predictability. With this predictability it is positioning itself as a valued partner to the East and to the West, and with a reinvigorated presence in the North African and Mediterranean regions, including in the maritime domain.

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