Muhammadu Buhari has emerged as the winner in Nigeria’s presidential elections. The defeated incumbent Goodluck Jonathan is stepping aside in good grace – or so it seems.
What are the implications of this result for maritime security in Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea in the short and in the long term? Read a snapshot analysis of the situation in Risk Intelligence’s briefing paper “Buhari wins Nigeria’s presidential elections: implications for maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea”.
This assessment was prepared for MaRisk, Risk Intelligence's maritime threat monitoring system, and has now been made available for a wider audience.
Please click on the top right bar to download the PDF.
The passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden is too important for the threat of a longer sea route south of Africa to be Risk Intelligence informs the Danish maritime magazine Søfart, 31 March.
In a conflict developing by the day, it can be hard to take stock. The unrest in Yemen is currently a great source of worry, especially to the oil industry, who fear a closure of the narrow Bab-el-Mandeb strait is widespread. Such closure would imply that merchant vessels can no longer use the shortcut through the Suez Canal, but will be forced to take the longer route south of Africa.
Risk Intelligence estimates, however, that even with all ports in Yemen being officially shut down at the moment, there is no reason to believe that the maritime hub of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait will be blocked. Yemen simply profits too well from keeping the international waters open for sailing, CEO of Risk Intelligence, Hans Tino Hansen explains: “A great deal of the LNG-transport from Yemen LNG in Balhaf happens through the Suez Canal, and any future government will be dependent of these revenues, and thus none of the two sides of the conflict has an interest in destroying this”. This fact makes Risk Intelligence conclude that while there has been talks of blockade of the strait between Yemen and Djibouti, this is highly unlikely on the short term, and will probably only present itself as a possibility if the conflict in Yemen leads to war breaking out between international actors.
Despite reports of Djibouti having had its port capacity strongly tested, there is almost no effect of the Yemen crisis on international transit sailing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden right now, Risk Intelligence finally tells maritime media Søfart. Recognizing the constant developments of the volatile situation in Yemen, however, Risk Intelligence has upgraded their security updates with a weekly report dedicated to the security situation in Yemen and around, constructed in parts by private sources in Yemen.
A Shia uprising in Yemen has caused Saudi-led forces to initiate bombings on Yemeni territory, and this has resulted in Yemen shutting down all of its sea ports, Hans Tino Hansen, CEO at Risk Intelligence, tells the Danish maritime magazine, Søfart.
The shutdown has major implications for all ships calling Yemeni ports, and the uprising in Yemen has thus reached a new level for maritime security risk, Hans Tino Hansen warns.
Whereas the assessment of Risk Intelligence in February was that the Yemeni ports of Aden and Hodeidah were still relatively safe, the recommendation from Risk Intelligence is now that one should make sure to stay completely up to date on what is happening in Yemen, as the conflict according to Hans Tino Hansen can quickly change directions.
For the full article in Danish, see the link below (subscription needed):
Ghana Armed Forces Command and Staff College
Dirk Steffen, Director Maritime Security was speaking at the Ghana Armed Forces Command and Staff College - on "Private Industry Perspectives on Maritime Security in the Gulf of Guinea" 30 March 2015.
Fredericia Havn 4.-5. maj 2015
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